Strana.UA, 11/29/25 (Translation by Geoffrey Roberts)

The head of the Presidential Office, Andriy Yermak, was a key figure in Zelensky’s inner circle, and his resignation will undoubtedly have enormous consequences.

Although Yermak will likely try to maintain his control over the Office of the President by appointing a close associate as the new head of the Office, his resignation ultimately sets in motion Zelensky’s loss of control over the vertical of power.

It turns out that Yermak was actually fired not by his boss (Zelensky), but by the NABU; even before he was charged, the President dismissed his closest associate, following only a search, public outcry, and pressure from opposition politicians. This sends a powerful signal to the entire state apparatus that Zelensky is no longer the “source of power” in the country and cannot guarantee anything even to his closest associates.

Moreover, few believe that Yermak (like Mindych and other figures in high-ranking corruption cases) could have carried out their schemes without the knowledge, consent, or even direct participation of the President.

In other words, a blow to Yermak is automatically a blow to Zelensky, a signal that he too could be accused of corruption at any moment. Especially if lesser figures speak out (and after today’s events, the likelihood of this has increased).

Immediately after the outbreak of the Mindych corruption scandal, Bankova began to lose its levers of political control within the government. Even [Prime Minister] Svyrydenko began to increasingly rely on the opinions of the Servant of the People faction rather than the Office of the Prosecutor General. The SBU and the Prosecutor General’s Office also began to sabotage various “political” instructions from the President’s Office.

Now, all these processes will accelerate dramatically. And the only question is how Zelensky will lose his remaining power.

It could be implemented in a softer form, by shifting the centre of decision-making from Bankova to parliament and the government, but maintaining the dominant position of Servant of the People. This project is being promoted by faction leader Arakhamia and several other people in the presidential team who were negatively disposed toward Yermak.

A source close to Arakhamia in the Servant of the People faction described the group’s vision for the future in a comment to Strana: “After Yermak’s resignation, the Rada will stabilise and calm down. There will be no defections from the faction, which have been much discussed in parliamentary corridors. Everyone will remain in their positions. We will pass the budget with dignity and responsibility.”

Zelensky will also lose political control over the Prosecutor General’s Office, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), and the State Bureau of Investigation (SBI) (Yermak coordinated the political work of these agencies, including against the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU)).

But a far more severe scenario is also possible, in which, through a split in Servant of the People, the parliamentary majority is reformed and comes under the control of the “anti-Zelensky coalition” (Poroshenko and MPs close to grant structures, with the NABU on their side). In this case, a vote of no confidence in the government would be passed, and pressure would be exerted on Zelensky to approve the formation of a new Cabinet of Ministers of “national unity,” effectively independent of the president. Such a scenario would essentially lead to Zelensky’s own imminent departure.

But far more important is the potential impact of these events on the war and on the peace negotiations.

Yermak’s resignation and the resulting upheavals within the government will in any case have a significant impact on the country’s governance during the war: budget adoption, energy, defense procurement, and the mood of the military and society.

Zelensky’s own political prospects would also be largely nullified. First, a corruption scandal involving those closest to him. Now, the resignation of a key figure in the vertical of power. All of this significantly reduces the incumbent president’s chances of winning the election.

This means that ratings are gradually becoming a secondary concern for Zelensky. This could, theoretically, make him more susceptible to American pressure regarding key points of the peace agreement, which he has so far refused to agree to (although much depends on the degree of pressure and the bonuses offered).

This also increases the likelihood of a scenario in which, under increasing pressure to make concessions in the negotiations to end the war, Zelensky may decide to resign altogether, and the final negotiations for signing the agreement will be led by the acting president, the speaker of parliament.

Finally, it cannot be ruled out that the system of power will completely collapse and become unmanageable, leaving no one to negotiate peace terms with. But this could have catastrophic consequences for the military situation, and therefore the Ukrainian elite and the West will try to prevent this.