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John Solomon & Steven Richards: New memos undercut Biden-Ukraine narrative Democrats sold during 2019 impeachment scandal

By John Solomon and Steven Richards, Just the News, 8/21/23

Just weeks before then-Vice President Joe Biden took the opposite action in late 2015, a task force of State, Treasury and Justice Department officials declared that Ukraine had made adequate progress on anti-corruption reforms and deserved a new $1 billion U.S. loan guarantee, according to government memos that conflict with the narrative Democrats have sustained since the 2019 impeachment scandal.

“Ukraine has made sufficient progress on its reform agenda to justify a third guarantee,” reads an Oct. 1, 2015, memo summarizing the recommendation of the Interagency Policy Committee (IPC) – a task force created to advise the Obama White House on whether Ukraine was cleaning up its endemic corruption and deserved more Western foreign aid.

The recommendation is one of several U.S. government memos gathered by Just the News over the last 36 months from Freedom of Information Act litigation, congressional inquiries and government agency sources that directly conflict with the long-held narrative that Biden was conducting official U.S. policy when he threatened to withhold a $1 billion U.S. loan guarantee to force Ukraine to fire Prosecutor General Viktor Shokin, the country’s equivalent of the American attorney general.

At the time the threat was made in December 2015, Shokin’s office was conducting an increasingly aggressive corruption investigation into Burisma Holdings, an energy firm the State Department deemed to have been engaged in bribery and that employed Hunter Biden and paid him millions while his father was vice president.

New details on the impact of that probe have emerged in recent days.

Shokin’s pursuit was rattling Burisma, and the firm was putting pressure on Hunter Biden to deal with it, according to recent testimony and interviews with Devon Archer, Hunter Biden’s former business partner and fellow Burisma board member.

The memos obtained by Just the News show:

-Senior State Department officials sent a conflicting message to Shokin before he was fired, inviting his staff to Washington for a January 2016 strategy session and sent him a personal note saying they were “impressed” with his office’s work.

-U.S. officials faced pressure from Burisma emissaries in the United States to make the corruption allegations go away and feared the energy firm had made two bribery payments in Ukraine as part of an effort to get cases settled.

-A top U.S. official in Kyiv blamed Hunter Biden for undercutting U.S. anticorruption policy in Ukraine through his dealings with Burisma.

During Trump’s first impeachment in late 2019, State officials testified that Hunter Biden’s acceptance of a job at Burisma at a time when his father was vice president created the appearance of a conflict of interest but did not materially impact U.S. policy in Ukraine.

But in a private, classified email shared with Just the News, one of the top U.S. officials in the Kyiv embassy told then-Ambassador Marie Yovanovitch at the end of the Obama administration that Hunter Biden had, in fact, impacted the U.S. anti-corruption agenda in Ukraine.

“The real issue to my mind was that someone in Washington needed to engage VP Biden quietly and say that his son Hunter’s presence on the Burisma board undercut the anti-corruption message the VP and we were advancing in Ukraine b/c Ukrainians heard one message from us and then saw another set of behavior with the family association with a known corrupt figure whose company was known for not playing by the rules,” embassy official George Kent wrote to Yovanovitch in the Nov. 22, 2016, email marked “confidential.”

Joe Biden’s role in pressuring then-Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko in December 2015 to fire Shokin has been a searing controversy since April 2019, when the lead author on this story, as a columnist for The Hill, unearthed a 2018 videotape of the former vice president bragging about his role to a foreign policy think tank.

At the time Shokin was investigating Burisma for corruption, the company was paying Hunter Biden and Archer, $83,333 a month as board members.

“I said, ‘You’re not getting the billion.’ I’m going to be leaving here in, I think it was about six hours. I looked at them and said: ‘I’m leaving in six hours. If the prosecutor is not fired, you’re not getting the money,’” Biden recounted in the speech to the Council on Foreign Relations. “Well, son of a bitch, he got fired. And they put in place someone who was solid at the time.”

The disclosure prompted then-President Donald Trump to ask Ukraine’s new president, Volodymyr Zelensky, to investigate.

Democrats howled and eventually impeached Trump in late 2019. The Senate acquitted the former president. Today, the original column that prompted the controversy is preserved in the official records of Congress.

Evidence would show during impeachment and afterward that Biden’s conversation with Poroshenko occurred during a trip to Kyiv in December 2015. Under withering pressure from U.S. and Western officials, the Ukrainian president eventually buckled and persuaded Shokin to resign a few months later in March 2016. Poroshenko would tell Biden there was no evidence Shokin had done anything wrong but he forced the resignation anyway to appease the president.

“Despite of the fact that we didn’t have any corruption charges, we don’t have any information about him doing something wrong, I especially asked him … No, it was the day before yesterday. I especially asked him to resign,” Poroshenko told Biden in an audio tape call from March 2016 that was eventually released by a Ukrainian lawmaker in 2020.

The narrative from Biden’s defenders and government officials who testified at Trump’s first impeachment was that Biden’s action in withholding the U.S. loan guarantees had nothing to do with his son’s role at Burisma and that officials across the West and inside the U.S. government were clamoring to fire Shokin because he was deemed corrupt.

Kent, for instance, answered “he did” when he was asked during his impeachment testimony whether Biden acted consistent with U.S. policy when he used the loan guarantee as leverage to force Shokin’s firing.

“I did nothing wrong,” Biden said during 2019 CNN-New York Times debate. “I carried out the policy of the United States government in rooting out corruption in Ukraine. And that’s what we should be focusing on.”

Multiple lawyers who worked on Trump’s impeachment defense as well as some of the GOP House impeachment members told Just the News they did not recall ever seeing the documents unearthed by Just the News and said they would have made a significant difference to the impeachment case.

“This new evidence being uncovered and reported by Just The News is incredibly significant,” said former New York Republican Rep. Lee Zeldin. “It directly undercuts multiple false narratives that were being pushed by Congressional Democrats, some of their key impeachment witnesses, and Democrat allies in the media.”

Jay Sekulow, a lawyer who helped lead Trump’s legal team during the impeachment, said he did not believe the defense had access to such memos.

“The fact of the matter is none of these documents were handed over to us,” he said. “Our legal team never received documents from the House impeachment. So of course, they’re not obligated to in the sense of like in a courtroom. But when you have exculpatory documents, you would think that under just a good faith standards of the House of Representatives would have said, ‘You know, here’s what we’ve got.'”

Sekulow continued: “But of course, they weren’t going to do that. Because as soon as they did that, everyone knew their narrative was false.”

Some, but not all, of the memos were turned over in late 2020 to the Senate Homeland Security Committee during its probe of the Biden family finances, but they arrived too late to impact most of the interview the panel did or to make it into the panel’s final report, Wisconsin GOP Sen. Ron Johnson’s office said.

In 2020, current Undersecretary of State Victoria Nuland, then State’s top expert on Ukraine, gave Johnson’s investigators a more specific timetable on when her department determined Shokin had to go, saying the concerns dated to summer of 2015 and involved the failure of Shokin’s office to prosecute former members of ousted Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych.

“The initial expectation, when we began talking about the third loan guarantee, which I believe was in the summer of 2015, was that Prosecutor General Shokin make more progress than we had seen to clean up corruption inside the Prosecutor General’s Office itself – I’ll now refer to that as the PGO – and that he make more progress in mounting big corruption cases, including against Yanukovych cronies, that he make more progress in investigating the hundred dead on the Maidan by snipers during 2013-2014,” she told Senate investigators in the deposition.

“So the first press was to see him make the Prosecutor General’s Office, the PGO, clean and effective, so that’s what we started pressing in August, September, October.

“You see that pressed in the speech that Ambassador Pyatt gives in Odessa. You see it in my testimony before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee in October of 2015. … It was a policy that was coordinated tightly with the Europeans, with the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank. But not only did we not see progress, we saw the PGO go backward in this period,” she also said.

Another element of the Democrat-fed, media-driven narrative was that Shokin wasn’t really investigating Burisma and there was no threat to the company.

But key elements of that narrative have now been challenged since Archer told Congress that Burisma hired Hunter Biden in 2014 to gain access to a family “brand,” including his father, that would scare away prosecutors trying to investigate the company for corruption.

“People would be intimidated to mess with them,” Archer testified, describing the value Hunter brought to the company.

In a separate interview with TV host Tucker Carlson, Archer said that at the time Biden forced Shokin’s firing because he was posing a major threat to Burisma by going after the assets of the owner Mykola Zlochevsky.

“He was a threat,” Archer said. “He ended up seizing assets of Mykola – a house, some cars, a couple properties. And Mykola actually never went back to Ukraine after Shokin seized all of his assets.”

Archer told Carlson that while pressure was being applied to Hunter Biden, the Burisma board was being told that Shokin was being dealt with and could stay in the job. But Archer added that he now doubts the story being told to the board.

The GOP-led House Oversight and Accountability Committee said Archer’s testimony and other evidence it has gathered shows that by late 2015 Burisma was pressuring Hunter Biden to do something about Shokin, who had stepped up his probe of the energy company after then-U.S. Ambassador Geoffrey Pyatt gave a speech in September 2015 in Odessa, Ukraine, urging more action against the firm.

“In December 2015, Mykola Zlochevsky, the owner of Burisma, and Vadym Pozharski, an executive of Burisma, placed constant pressure on Hunter Biden to get help from D.C. regarding the Ukrainian prosecutor, Viktor Shokin,” the committee stated in a memo in late July.

Government memos obtained by Just the News also directly conflict with the narrative, showing the State Department was actually sending a different message to Shokin, the Ukrainian government and to Joe Biden before a sudden pivot in late November 2015.

For instance, Nuland sent a letter to Shokin in June 2015 on behalf of then-Secretary of State John Kerry congratulating Shokin and suggesting they were “impressed” about the job he was doing on corruption reforms. The letter was so important it was hand-delivered by Pyatt, according to the memos Just the News gathered.

“Secretary Kerry asked me to reply on his behalf to your letter of May 13, 2015, discussing Ukraine ‘s efforts to address corruption, including through implementation of the new anti-corruption strategy and reform of the Prosecutor General’s Office,” Nuland wrote in the June 11, 2015, memo obtained through a FOIA lawsuit.

“We have been impressed with the ambitious reform and anti-corruption agenda of your government,” Nuland continued. “The challenges you face are difficult, but not insurmountable. You have an historic opportunity to address the injustices of the past by vigorously investigating and prosecuting corruption cases and recovering assets stolen from the Ukrainian people. The ongoing reform of your office, law enforcement, and the judiciary will enable you to investigate and prosecute corruption and other crimes in an effective, fair, and transparent manner.”

Those upbeat sentiments remained strong heading into fall 2015 inside the IPC task force charged with monitoring Shokin and determining whether Joe Biden should deliver new U.S. aid to Ukraine at the end of the year.

In its September 2015 meeting, the IPC affirmed that Shokin’s reform effort – including the creation of a new independent inspector general watchdog to police prosecutors’ behavior – was advancing enough to warrant the new loan guarantee

“All, thank you for a productive meeting yesterday. Please find a SOC below. It was agreed: The IPC concluded that (1) Ukraine has made sufficient progress on its reform agenda to justify a third guarantee and (2) Ukraine has an economic need for the guarantee and it is in our strategic interest to provide One,” Christina Segal-Knowles, the Obama White House director of International Economic Affairs, wrote to top officials from the NSC, DOJ, Treasury and State who advised the task force.

“As such, the IPC recommends moving forward with a third loan guarantee for Ukraine in the near‐term, noting State/F’s preference to issue the guarantee as late as possible to allow more clarity on the budget context and Embassy Kyiv and Treasury’s assessment that Ukraine needs the guarantee by end‐2015,” she also said.

The task force identified some deliverables to be ironed out in the weeks before the loan guarantee, including strengthening procurement and other policies inside Shokin’s office.

“State (including via consultation with State/INL) and DOJ will explore options to further strengthen the PGO CP and submit a revised proposal (State and DOJ by October 6),” Segal-Knowles wrote.

In addition to urging the billion dollar loan guarantee be approved, the task force memo made no suggestion to fire Shokin or list any failures to pursue corruption.

By early November 2015, the task force had crafted a draft agreement for the loan guarantee. In a document titled “Third U.S. Loan Guarantee: Proposed Conditions Precedent,” officials laid out what Shokin’s office had agreed to do and made made no demand or even suggestion that the prosecutor be fired.

“Ukraine shall provide to USAID a copy of the comprehensive regulation, adopted by the Prosecutor General, which ensures the independent operations of the Office of Inspector General (IG) of the Prosecutor General’s Office (PGO),” the memo explained. “The regulation shall clearly define the PGO IG’s jurisdiction, powers, and authority, to enable it to perform its functions in a manner that is effective and credible, and that increases the accountability of the PGO to the public. The regulation shall be endorsed by the U.S. Department of Justice.”

A month later, Joe Biden appeared to be synced with the task force recommendations.

In a call to Poroshenko on Nov. 5, 2015, Obama’s vice president delivered the message that Ukraine was about to get the massive new loan guarantee, while cheering on more reforms in Shokin’s office and the country’s elections, according to a State Department memo summarizing the phone conversation.

“Vice President Joe Biden spoke today with Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko about implementation of the Minsk agreements, economic reforms, and anti-corruption initiatives,” the department’s “readout” of the call recounted. “The Vice President congratulated President Poroshenko on the conduct of Ukraine’s local elections, which represent another milestone in the country’s democratic development.

“Regarding economic reforms, the Vice President reiterated the U.S. willingness to provide a third $1 billion loan guarantee to Ukraine contingent on continued Ukrainian progress to investigate and prosecute corruption and ensure that Ukraine’s tax reform is consistent with its IMF program,” the memo stated.

In the weeks that ensued, State and Justice officials proceeded with their plan laid out in the October memo, even inviting the senior leadership of Shokin’s office to come to Washington in January 2016 for further collaboration.

When those prosecutors arrived in Washington, according to the State Department memos, word leaked out that Biden had in December 2015 changed the U.S. message. The U.S. embassy in Kyiv reported the leak in the Ukrainian press, prompting a new thread among the IPC task force members that once again affirmed that they were “super impressed” with Shokin’s team.

“According to Dzerkalo Tyzhnya news website, ‘the U.S. State Department has made it clear to the Ukrainian authorities that it links the provision of a one billion dollar loan guarantee to Ukraine to the dismissal of Prosecutor General Viktor Shokin,” the Kyiv embassy wrote members of the IPC task force.

“Buckle in,” Pyatt wrote in a cryptic response to the leak on Jan. 21, 2016.

Eric Ciarmella, a CIA official assigned to the Obama White House for Ukraine issues who would later emerge as the whistleblower whose allegations prompted Trump’s impeachment, seemed surprised by the leak.

“Yikes. I don’t recall this coming up in our meeting with them on Tuesday, although we did discuss the fact that the PGO IG condition has not yet been met,” Ciarmella wrote the IPC task force members. “I’ve been meaning to write to you about our meeting – we were super impressed with the group, and we had a two-hour discussion of their priorities and the obstacles they face.”

A few days earlier, the Obama White House circulated the latest conditions for the loan guarantee, again signaling the task force was prepared to provide the loan guarantee, though there were still some undelivered promises inside Shokin’s office.

“Here’s nearly the latest CP document. We’ve made some very minor tweaks since this version, which I will dig up and send to you tomorrow but wanted to get something to you tonight,” Segal-Knowles wrote State Department official Rachel Goldbrenner on Jan. 15.

The attached document was identical to the conditions memo crafted in November for Biden’s call with Poroshenko. Remarkably, it made no demand for Shokin’s removal from office.

In fact, none of the documents provided to Just the News or to Sen. Johnson’s exhaustive investigation in 2020 show any recommendation by the IPC to withhold the billion dollar loan guarantee or to demand Shokin’s firing. If they exist, they have not been provided to date.

Now, the story of how Joe Biden pivoted in late November 2015 to withhold the loan guarantee and forced Shokin’s firing is captured in two sets of emails that chronicle a tumultuous six weeks for the vice president’s office and for Hunter Biden’s relationship with Burisma.

They’ll be divulged in tomorrow’s second installment, including the Joe Biden talking points that provided the first documented mention of seeking Shokin’s dismissal. Those talking points, however, were not even shared with the U.S. ambassador to Ukraine.

Kim Iversen Interviews Scott Ritter on Death of Prigozhin and Ukraine War

Link here.

Here are a few articles/interviews with interesting information or analyses. I’m not advocating for any particular theory at this point. All I will say is that my first thoughts on hearing of Prigozhin’s death and the knee-jerk accusations of Putin’s responsibility was that he would not likely do this in the middle of the BRICS summit and would not likely do it in such a way as to have guaranteed collateral damage – yes, I think Putin would care about killing innocent bystanders for pragmatic reasons.- Natylie

BBC Monitoring

Russian investigators name suspect in Prigozhin plane bomb probe – ‘source’

Source: Telegram messaging service in Russian 1024 gmt 24 Aug 23   

Russian investigators have named a suspect who they say may have placed a bomb on board Yevgeny Prigozhin’s jet before it crashed on 23 August, the Shot Telegram channel reported on 24 August.

Citing an unnamed source, Shot, which is thought to be close to Russia’s security services, said investigators were looking into the theory that a bomb was placed in the plane’s undercarriage well and had blown off a wing and tail fin, sending the jet into a terminal spin.

According to the VChK OGPU, a popular Telegram channel that monitors corruption and organised crime, a suspect has emerged in the case – Artyom Stepanov, one of Prigozhin’s pilots and former manager of the MNT Aero company which owned the Embraer Legacy jet that crashed. According to the channel, Stepanov had access to the plane.

Law enforcement agencies cannot find Stepanov, who went to Kamchatka in Russia’s far east prior to the incident, where he “disappeared”, the report said.

According to his brother, there has been no contact with him for three days. It is possible he has left Russia, VChK OGPU suggested.

****

August 26, 2023

Who killed Yevgeny Prigozhin?

By Gilbert Doctorow

Yesterday I was one of a half dozen Russia and international affairs experts who were interviewed in live broadcasts of WION Indian television as part of the station’s extensive coverage of the death in a plane crash of Wagner Group owner Yevgeny Prigozhin. Many of those interviews have been posted on the internet. Perhaps mine will appear shortly and then I will attach the link below.

My point in writing now is to call attention to the line of reasoning that guided the WION reportage on Prigozhin, namely the assumption that Russian President Vladimir Putin was behind the assassination of Prigozhin. This follows from the logic (?) expressed briefly by U.S. President Joe Biden when he was asked by reporters for his response to the demise of Prigozhin. Said Joe, “There is not much that goes on in Russia without the involvement of Vladimir Putin.” It also follows from the logic of the WION news presenter that all those who have crossed Putin have come to miserable ends.

In this assumption of Putin’s responsibility for the assassination, WION was entirely in line with the overwhelming majority of mainstream media outlets in the West. Tabloids in the U.K., in Germany and elsewhere have carried lurid front page headlines pinning the murder on Putin.

Meanwhile, Russian media have a very different story to tell. The investigation which Russian criminal justice authorities have opened in the case is being taken seriously. The expressions of condolences offered by Putin to the families of those who died on the plane are taken as sincere. And as I saw on the Vladimir Solovyov talk show two days ago, the accusatory finger is being directed at the West, meaning in fact the United States, which is assumed to have plotted the assassination and carried it out either directly or via proxies.

So who is right about the authors of the assassination?

The Roman principle of cui bono to guide investigators is not particularly helpful in the Prigozhin case. The man was a swashbuckling self-promoter who made enemies wherever he operated. He publicly denounced Russia’s army leadership and held it up to ridicule. His mutiny two months ago and march on Moscow was not a parade: it cost the lives of 13 Russian servicemen whose planes and helicopters Prigozhin’s troops shot down. Whatever the disposition of the Russian President, these facts would ensure the emergence of Russian patriots set on eliminating the Wagner chief on their own initiative and to settle their personal scores with him.

And what about the enemies Prigozhin made abroad? He amassed a vast fortune in the Wagner Group operations in Africa, where he displaced the French presence in Mali, to the chagrin of the old colonial masters in Paris, and now he was expected to profit from the eviction of the French from Niger, and the expulsion possibly of the Americans as well. Remember that the United States has invested half a billion dollars in military installations and training in Niger, which may now be overturned at any moment by the anti-colonial new masters of the country.

To these considerations, I add here what I said on air to the WION interview host in answer to his listing the many Opposition figures in Russia who have come to nasty ends, including of course the journalist Anna Politkovskaya, the politician Boris Nemtsov, the former FSB operative Alexander Litvinenko and more. Firstly, it is simplistic to think that one man, Vladimir Putin, is in full control of everything happening in a country of 145 million inhabitants who have their own interests, grudges, ambitions, etc. Secondly, the list of “victims” of Putin’s imagined revenge for crossing him does not take into account the fate of the many highly visible and active Putin-haters whom he has not touched in any way, because of the word of honor he gave to Boris Yeltsin when he was named as successor not to do any harm to the Yeltsin entourage. By way of example, I can name Yeltsin’s widow Naina and the viciously anti-Putin Yeltsin Center in Yekaterinburg, which she heads. Then there are the viciously anti-Putin daughter of former Petersburg mayor Sobchak and Sobchak’s widow, Lyudmila Narusova; both have been accused of criminal activities for which they should properly be serving prison terms, but neither has suffered in any way thanks to Putin’s protection. There are many other conspicuous wreckers, like the now self-exiled Anatoly Chubais, who were spared only thanks to Putin’s honoring his promises to his former boss. Why would Vladimir Putin now violate the pledge he gave to Belarus President Lukashenko not to touch Prigozhin when they concluded a peace deal to end the mutiny?

Then again, the list of “victims” of Putin’s alleged vengeful ways given by the WION host also demands to be challenged. I think in particular of the “victim,” oligarch Boris Berezovsky who was found hanged in his London mansion some years ago. The Western press pointed and points to Putin as ordering the “suicide.” However, it is far more likely that the crime was committed by MI6 since Berezovsky was known to be negotiating a safe return to Russia with the FSB when he was “suicided.”

I conclude with mention of one detail that has been carried by Western media without exploring what it means beyond the face value they give it: namely the fact that the only source so far for the explanation of how Prigozhin’s plane went down is…U.S. intelligence agencies in anonymous disclosures to the press. They tell us that the plane was not shot down by ground to air missiles and that very likely it was destroyed by a bomb on board or other sabotage. Curiously, no one has bothered to ask how U.S. intelligence would know this if it were not directly involved in plotting the assassination.

[Viewing footage of the plane crash makes it appear that a bomb or other sabotage being responsible is a very reasonable initial assessment given the breakup of the plane and the lack of any of the telltale signs that would accompany a missile attack. This is just a common sense observation and does not require one to have been involved in the attack. – Natylie]

Gordon Hahn: Maidan Meltdown, Ukrainian Chaos, and a Russian Quagmire?

By Gordon Hahn, Russian and Eurasian Politics, 8/15/23

It is being reported that Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskii met with Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Gneral Staff Viktor Zalyuzhnii and Chief of the Ukrainian Ground Forces Oleksandr Syrskii and that they discussed continuing the counteroffensive in the south towards Melitopol and the Azov Sea, demanding it be intensified. Zalyuzhnyi reportedly repeated his opposition to this operation because of the heavy losses. Zelenskiy responded that at the Vilnius summit NATO gave Ukraine until November to make progress in the counter-offenisive, after which time the West will begin reducing its material support for the war and expect Kiev to begin negotiations with Moscow (https://t.me/rezident_ua/18743; see also the first minutes of the Military Summary report of 14 July 2023, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hlTcEvkXcmg&ab_channel=MilitarySummary).

Faced now with a likely military disaster as they press ahead with a failing venture now in haste, Kiev is certain to face collapsing support from the West. As a consequence, Zelenskiy finds himself caught between several hot burning flames. On the one hand, he cannot override the opposition to negotiations with Moscow among Ukraine’s ubiquitous nationalists, ultra-nationalists, and neo-fascists, even if he has the united support for such a step from the West, which is highly unlikely at least this year. The above-mentioned nationalist and fascist elements are often as anti-Western as they anti-Russian. Thus, not just because of demands for the West but for domestic political survival, Zelenskiy must continue the counteroffensive, indeed somehow intensify it given the lack of results thus far at the present level of intensity.

Not surprisingly, the attitude prevailing in the President’s Office or ‘Bankovaya’ (as it is called locally in allusion to its location on Bankovaya Street in Kiev) is dismal, according to one source: “(O)n Bankovaya everyone realized at the NATO summit that they began to throw us under the bus, but they do it in a Jesuitical style, they smile in our face, and they negotiate with the Kremlin behind our backs. The most insulting thing for Zelensky is that we were thrown under the bus by the British, who last year did not allow us to sign the Istanbul peace treaty, and now they are talking about military assistance” (https://t.me/rezident_ua/18742). The reference to the ‘Istanbul peace treaty’ is to Boris Johnson’s March 2022 ‘mission to Kiev’, likely made at Washington’s behest, in which the West sent the message to Zelenskiy that Kiev must not sign any agreement with Moscow that had stipulations that would put an end to NATO expansion to Ukraine.

As Kiev and Washington alienate each other, blaming each other for the faulire of NATO’s Ukrainian project there are at least two potential reactions inside the Ukrainian elite. One is that the ultranationalist and neofascist wings will strengthen, with moderates and moderate nationalists becoming ultra-nationalists and ultra-nationalists becoming neo-fascists. These will lead to the fascization of the regime which Moscow has claimed is already fascist. Instead of having coopted the ultra-nationalists and neo-fascists, the Maidan regime will move fully into ultranationalist-neofascist mode. The other path is full-bore inter-factional conflict and even internecine warfare, as the regime already is beginning to eat itself in ever more accusatory mutual recriminations. Thus, on the one hand, Zelenskiy takes a grave risk in moving to talks with Moscow, which will be regarded as treason by hardliners. But on the other hand, he will be blamed by some for being duped by the West for not taking a chance on the Istanbul peace or at least ceasefire when there was a chance in April 2022 only two months into the war.

Infighting is already mounting. Kiev’s mayor and a founding force of the Maidan regime Vitalii Klichko publicly stated that Zelensky is initiating police searches of his political rivals and possible presidential candidates. Klichko is currently under investigation for alleged corruption, while Zelenskiy’s money laundering from criminal oligarch Ihor Kolomoiskii has been left unexamined. In reacting to an interviewer’s question regarding rumors that he himself could become a nominee in presidential elections, which Zelenskiy recently said cannot be held as scheduled but only after the war, Klichko responded: “Such questions are often asked to me. And then Vladimir Aleksandrovich Zelensky starts to get nervous, and then secret police searches (obyski) begin against me or other people after such questions about the presidency” (https://t.me/rezident_ua/18745). This is further confirmation of our assertions that Ukraine’s democracy was a very weak one at best and would fully self-destruct during the war (https://gordonhahn.com/2022/03/29/were-all-authoritarian-now/ and https://gordonhahn.com/2022/04/18/the-iraq-scenario-the-specter-of-ukrainian-instability-and-chaos/). But the point here is that in such desperate conditions, power struggles and coup plots find fertile soil. I have already noted the civil-military tensions in Kiev (https://gordonhahn.com/2023/07/13/cracks-in-natos-ukraine-project/). Adding intra-civilian political warfare adds another layer of instability to the dynamic.

If the situation at the front deteriorates significantly, we can expect political disturbances in Kiev that could lead to a complete collapse of the Maidan regime and Ukraine’s defenses and even spark a civil war embedded within the present interstate war. In that event, the Russians will be able to mount a decisive counteroffensive, but this will not necessarily mean an end to the chaos. Moscow may be left with a series of nationalist warlords and insurgencies to quell for several years to come. Ukraine will be awash in weapons and no small numbers of outraged ultra-natinalists and neo-fascists even after a Russian victory no matter how one might define one. This will be especially true in very anti-Russian and russophobic western Ukraine. NATO will be more than happy to finance, arm and equip the Ukrainian neofascist underground and any other insurgent elements in order to complicate Moscow’s task and keep it bogged down and unable to drive to the Polish border.

In sum, for the last 18 months the Ukrainian time bomb has only just begun to explode. Things can get far nastier for all the parties involved, but they will nastiest of all for the Ukrainian people in the broader, now quaint civic sense of the phrase that includes both Ukrainians, Russians, and the few remaining Crimean Tatars.

Wagner CEO Yevgeny Prigozhin Dies in Plane Crash in Russia

Link here.

Prigozhin’s Plane Crash: Conspiracies & Consequences

By Andrew Korybko, Substack, 8/24/23

Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin and elite members of his group’s leadership were killed in a plane crash Wednesday evening outside Moscow in circumstances that have yet to be fully determined. Before debunking the popular conspiracy theory that President Putin was responsible and discussing the possible consequences of this incident, it’s important to clarify the deceased’s relationship to the Russian state. Here are a few relevant analyses that will then be summarized for the reader’s convenience:

* “Prigozhin Blinked After Putin Mercifully Gave Him A Final Chance To Save His Life

* “Prigozhin Was The West’s ‘Useful Idiot’

* “How Putin Averted A Civil War In Russia After Wagner’s Coup Attempt

* “Lukashenko’s Suggestion To Learn From Wagner Doesn’t Mean That The Coup Was ‘Maskirovka’

* “There’s Nothing Conspiratorial About Putin Meeting With Wagner Leaders After The Failed Coup

In brief, Wagner’s long-running rivalry with the Defense Ministry finally spiraled out of control in late June, but President Putin peacefully resolved the crisis by de facto pardoning those involved. Some then went to Belarus while others traveled to Africa. This outcome aligned with Russia’s national interests but was spun by some members of the Alt-Media Community (AMC) as proof of a “false flag coup”. What’s indisputable, however, is that Wagner continued functioning as an instrument of the Russian state.

Prigozhin had just published a video from the Sahel in the days before he died where he declared that he was “making Russia even greater on all continents! And Africa even more free.” The regional context concerned the spate of anti-French revolts there in recent years that took the form of patriotic military coups, with the most recent one being in Niger, which is now threatened by a French-backed Nigerian-led ECOWAS invasion. Here are some analyses about Russia’s growing role in that part of the world:

* “Africa’s Role In The New Cold War

* “Axios Exposed France’s Infowar Against Russia In Africa

* “Analyzing President Putin’s Vision Of Russian-African Relations

* “Russia’s Newfound Appeal To African Countries Is Actually Quite Easy To Explain

* “American Officials Told Politico Their Plan For Waging Hybrid War Against Wagner In Africa

And here are a couple pieces about the new West African Crisis:

* “The Nigerien Coup Could Be A Game-Changer In The New Cold War

* “West Africa Is Gearing Up For A Regional War

* “The Mainstream Media’s New Narrative Is That Niger Is Now A Global Epicenter Of Terrorism

* “France Reportedly Thinks That The US Backstabbed It During Nuland’s Trip To Niger

* “Why’s US Media Talking About Nigerien General Moussa Barmou All Of A Sudden?

These last ten analyses are relevant to Wednesday’s incident since Wagner’s growing role in helping Sahelian states safeguard their sovereignty was speculated by some to be the reason why the West allegedly assassinated that group’s leader. While no evidence has yet to emerge in support of that theory, the previously shared analysis from early July regarding President Putin’s meeting with Wagner leaders explains why their African operations would still continue even without Prigozhin at the helm.

Having detailed the most relevant developments leading up to Prigozhin’s plane crash, it’s now time to draw attention to the AMC’s and their putative Mainstream Media (MSM) rivals’ conspiracy theory implying that President Putin had a hand in his death. The first has been pushing an old video on social media where the Russian leader says that he can’t forgive betrayal while the second has reminded everyone of US officials’ prior warnings that Prigozhin’s life was in danger.

Each camp strongly suggests that the Russian leader was responsible for Wednesday’s incident, with the AMC hinting that this was due to personal reasons while the MSM wants their targeted audience to believe that it was yet another “political killing” in a long line of many. Each requires accepting that President Putin supposedly lied when he said on national television that “I will keep my promise” to let those involved in late June’s events decide their own futures without fear of state retribution.

Not only that, but this conspiracy theory’s adherents also think that he then ordered Prigozhin’s death in one of the most dramatic ways possible, which irresponsibly risked harming innocent civilians on the ground. There are compelling reasons to doubt this version of events. For starters, the outcome of what happened and the optics connected with it are both disadvantageous to Russia’s national interests, and it’s absurd to imagine that President Putin plotted to undermine his own country like this.

Eliminating Prigozhin and elite members of this group’s leadership would be a blatant violation of the promise that he gave them on national television, and this could incite Wagner’s rank-and-file along with their supporters in the armed forces and civil society to consider anti-state actions in response. Those who are influenced by this conspiracy theory might convince themselves that they could be next, hence why they have to “act first out of self-defense”, thus setting into motion a self-fulfilling prophecy.  

It’s therefore in the West’s interests to weaponize this false perception for the purpose of manipulating highly trained forces and their sympathizers into functioning as “useful idiots” for destabilizing Russia through either another coup/mutiny attempt, terrorism, and/or a Color Revolution. Even if these scenarios don’t come to pass, the optics are still very damaging to Russia’s reputation at the leadership and state levels.

The MSM can maximally amplify speculation that President Putin signed Prigozhin’s death warrant to sow suspicions about his sincerity in signaling earlier this summer that he’s still interested in politically resolving the NATO-Russian proxy war in Ukraine. Likewise, this can also be done to mislead the international community about Russia’s political stability by making them falsely think that there’s a bloody power struggle taking place behind the scenes among competing military-intelligence factions.

On that note, it’s time to segue into the consequences of Prigozhin’s plane crash, beginning with what’s unlikely to happen before sharing a few words about what could soon follow. As was earlier written, Wagner’s African operations probably won’t be affected since it was always unrealistic to imagine that he and a few elite members were micromanaging dozens of tactical teams on the ground across various countries in real time. Morale might take a temporary hit, but the rank-and-file will eventually recover.

The West’s Hybrid War plot that was described in the preceding paragraphs isn’t expected to transpire, but even if some movement is made in that direction, then the threat to Russia’s security and stability would be manageable so nobody should prepare for “Balkanization”, civil war, or regime change. That said, the ongoing investigation will surely explore whether Wednesday’s incident was due to foul play, including scenarios of Kiev’s involvement but also possibly a rogue military-intelligence faction.

It’s premature to jump to conclusions in order to avoid functioning as the West’s “useful idiots” by either giving Kiev credit for kills that it wasn’t responsible for or sowing seeds of suspicion about Russian stability respectively, but both also can’t confidently be ruled out at this time either. After all, if there was a bomb on board like some speculate, then that would represent a major security lapse. Even if a rogue military-intelligence faction was involved, however, there’s no chance that they’ll destabilize Russia.

All told, while it remains unclear exactly what caused Prigozhin’s plane crash, President Putin certainly didn’t have a hand in it, but some in the AMC and especially the MSM will still imply otherwise. In the event that foul play was responsible, then Russia’s security services will definitely get to the bottom of it, though the state might decide that its interests are best served by not acknowledging this if it happened. In any case, this incident won’t destabilize Russia nor hinder its African activities or special operation.