Lee Fang: U.S. Funds Ukraine Groups Censoring Critics, Smearing Pro-Peace Voices

By Lee Fang, Substack, 4/11/24

This investigation was reported in collaboration with RealClearInvestigations.

Ukraine’s American-backed fight against Russia is taking place not only in the blood-soaked trenches of the Donbas region but also on what military planners call the cognitive battlefield – to win hearts and minds.

A sprawling constellation of media outlets organized with substantial funding and direction from the U.S. government has not just sought to counter Russian propaganda but has supported strong censorship laws and shutdowns of dissident outlets, disseminated disinformation of its own, and sought to silence critics of the war, including many American citizens.

Economist Jeffrey Sachs, commentator Tucker Carlson, journalist Glenn Greenwald, and University of Chicago Professor John Mearsheimer are among the critics on both the left and the right who have been cast as part of a “network of Russian propaganda.”

But the figures targeted by the Ukrainian watchdog groups are hardly Kremlin agents. They simply have forcefully criticized dominant narratives around the war.

Sachs is a highly respected international development expert who has angered Ukrainian officials over his repeated calls for a diplomatic solution to the current military conflict. Last November, he gave a speech at the United Nations calling for a negotiated peace.

Mearsheimer has written extensively on international relations and is a skeptic of NATO expansion. He predicted that Western efforts to militarize Ukraine would lead to a Russian invasion.

Greenwald is a Pulitzer Prize-winning independent journalist who has criticized not just war coverage but media dynamics that suppress voices that run counter to U.S. narratives. “What they mean when they demand censorship of ‘pro-Russia propaganda’ is anything that questions the US/EU role in the Ukraine war or who dissents from their narratives,” Greenwald has observed.

There’s no evidence of Kremlin influence over their viewpoints, but their comments alone are enough for a network of U.S.-backed Ukrainian media groups to tarnish these experts as Russian propagandists. 

U.S. taxpayer dollars are flowing to outlets such as the New Voice of Ukraine, VoxUkraine, Detector Media, the Institute of Mass Information, the Public Broadcasting Company of Ukraine and many others. Some of this money has come from the $44.1 billion in civilian-needs foreign aid committed to Ukraine. While the funding is officially billed as an ambitious program to develop high-quality independent news programs; counter malign Russian influence; and modernize Ukraine’s archaic media laws, the new sites in many cases have promoted aggressive messages that stray from traditional journalistic practices to promote the Ukrainian government’s official positions and delegitimize its critics.

VoxUkraine has released highly produced videos attacking the credibility of American opposition voices, including Sachs, Mearsheimer, and Greenwald. Detector Media, one of the most influential media watchdog groups, similarly produces a flow of social media and posts branding American critics of the war as part of a Russian disinformation operation. The outlets are also devoted to domestic disputes. Detector Media’s broadcasts have lampooned critics of Ukrainian government moves to shut down opposition media outlets.

It’s not only dissident voices targeted by the USAID-funded groups.

Detector Media went after the New York Times in February over a news report about hundreds of Ukrainians in the battle for Avdiivka who were captured or missing. The Ukrainian fact-check site offered little in terms of a rebuttal. Detector Media only cited a spokesperson for the Ukrainian Defense Forces disputing the Times’ story, which it labeled “disinformation.” The New Voice of Ukraine quoted a Ukrainian official describing the Times story as a “Russian Psyop,” a term for psychological warfare.

Unlike similar media development programs that the International Agency for International Development (USAID) has led throughout the Middle East, Ukrainian outlets tend to produce a great deal of English content that trickles back into the domestic American audience and explicitly targets American foreign policy discourse.

The New Voice of Ukraine syndicates with Yahoo News. VoxUkraine is a fact-checking partner with Meta, which assists in removing content deemed “Russian disinformation” from Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp. Detector Media has similarly led a consortium of nonprofit groups pressuring social media platforms to aggressively remove content critical of Ukraine.

Above: VoxUkraine, a USAID-funded group, produced videos and attacks smearing Americans such as economist Jeffrey Sachs as an agent of Kremlin propaganda. Sachs is a proponent of resolving the Ukraine-Russia war through diplomacy.

“It makes more sense to have it in English because one of the things that happens is that the narrative that one encounters in the mainstream media in the West is referenced as the official Ukrainian voices,” said Nicolai N. Petro, a professor specializing in Russian and Ukrainian affairs at the University of Rhode Island.

“These then become the known Ukrainian voices, although they’re actually only an echo of the voice that we are projecting into Ukraine,” Petro added.

Congress is now weighing a new supplemental funding measure, with approximately $60 billion earmarked for the war in Ukraine. A small portion of the emergency spending package is devoted to continued USAID programs in the country.

President Volodymyr Zelensky, in an interview this week with Politico, argued that legislators were skeptical of the aid package and were under the influence of Russian propaganda.

“They have their lobbies everywhere: in the United States, in the EU countries, in Britain, in Latin America, in Africa,” Zelenskyy said of Russian influence, without naming names. “When we talk about the Congress — do you notice how they work with society in the United States?”

The pro-Russian pressure groups, the Ukrainian president added, relied on “certain media groups, citizens of the United States.”

Information control is a central dynamic playing out in the Ukraine-Russia war. U.S. media have provided wide coverage of President Vladimir Putin’s efforts to clamp down on critical news outlets, enacting new criminal penalties for those publishing “false information” about the conflict. Many independent outlets in Russia have been forced to close, including the left-leaning radio station Ekho Moskvy. The Russian government has also blocked Russian-language news sites based in the West and arrested at least 22 journalists, including the Wall Street Journal’s Evan Gershkovich.

But far less attention has been paid to the Ukraine government’s crackdown on independent and opposition media, a push aided by the U.S.-backed network of anti-disinformation groups. Even as Washington’s efforts to censor information at home is drawing greater scrutiny, its support of Ukraine’s efforts reflects the increasingly global reach of the American government’s propaganda arms.

“There’s an information war going on between Russia and Ukraine, and the United States is not a disinterested party – we’re an active participant,” said George Beebe, a director with the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft. “The U.S. government has been trying to shape perceptions, and it’s very difficult to separate what’s intended for foreign audiences from what seeps into the Anglosphere media, if you want to call it that, including here in the United States.”

American influence in Ukraine’s media environment stretches back to the end of the Cold War, though it has intensified in recent years. Since the outbreak of the war, USAID support has extended to 175 national Ukrainian media entities.

Over the last decade, efforts to crack down on speech have been increasingly justified as an effort to protect social media from disinformation. The U.S. helped set up new think tanks and media watchdogs and brought over communications specialists to guide Ukraine’s approach. Nina Jankowicz, the polarizing official whom President Biden appointed to lead the Department of Homeland Security’s Disinformation Governance Board to police social media content, previously advised the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry on its anti-disinformation work.

In response to questions about the U.S.-backed anti-disinformation groups in Ukraine targeting Americans, the U.S. State Department provided a statement saying it defines disinformation as “as false or misleading information that is deliberately created or spread with the intent to deceive or mislead.” It added, “We accept there may be other interpretations or definitions and do not censor or coerce independent organizations into adopting our definition.” 

While noting that the U.S. “provides funding to credible independent media organizations to strengthen democracies in the countries we work in around the world,” the statement declared, “We do not control the editorial content of these organizations.”

However, disclosures indicate that the U.S. government and its contractors tasked with reforming Ukraine’s institutions have directly set the agenda for Ukrainian outlets. Immediately after Russia invaded Ukraine two years ago, the USAID dispensed emergency grants to its media partners, partly through the Zinc Network, a contractor based in London that has been accused of setting up covert public relations campaigns on behalf of the British government.

The grant description notes that the money went to the Zinc Network and Detector Media to assist the Ukrainian government with strategic communications and to “undermine Kremlin information operations.” Far from independent reporting, the grant instructions asked the recipients to provide “quick, effective PR and media engagement.” In addition to countering Russian disinformation, the money was intended to “maintain public morale” and “bolster international support for solidarity with Ukraine.”

Above: Zinc Network’s Open Information Partnership coordinates the activities of anti-disinformation watchdogs funded by NATO countries, particularly the U.S. and U.K.

Last September, journalist Jack Poulson reported on a leaked report from the Zinc Network’s Open Information Partnership, which helps coordinate the activities of several anti-Russian disinformation nonprofits around Europe backed by NATO members, including Detector Media.

The lengthy report defines disinformation as not only false or misleading content but also “verifiable information which is unbalanced or skewed, amplifies, or exaggerates certain elements for effect, or uses emotive or inflammatory language to achieve effects which fit within existing Kremlin narratives, aims, or activities.”

In other words, factual information with emotional language that simply overlaps with anything remotely connected to Russian viewpoints is considered disinformation, according to this U.S.-backed consulting firm helping to guide the efforts of Ukrainian think tanks and media.

Many of the broad narratives the report identified as Russian disinformation follow this vague rubric. These included allegations that NATO is using Ukraine as a pawn in a proxy war against Russia and concerns that Ukrainian politicians are corrupt.

The report goes on to blame many British and American experts who “portray the West as being divided, corrupt, or nefarious” as part of the Russian disinformation system. The document names liberal journalists Max Blumenthal and Newsweek’s Ellie Cook, as well as Republican figures such as former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy and Arizona Congressman Andy Biggs, as voices that end up featured in Russian propaganda and disinformation.

The Open Information Partnership report suggests new legislation to counter “malign foreign actors” and for European intelligence agencies to “do more” and provide a “unified approach” against the dangers of disinformation. Zinc Network did not respond to a request for comment.

Ukraine’s government has also worked with U.S. government officials and others to censor its American critics. One prominent example is Aaron Matė, an independent journalist who has criticized U.S. policy regarding Ukraine in other outlets. Following the Russian invasion, Twitter, under its old ownership, flagged Matė to be censored after the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), the Ukrainian intelligence agency, included him on a list of accounts sent to the FBI that were “suspected by the SBU in spreading fear and disinformation.”

Just months after the social media request, Ross Burley, a former Zinc Network and Open Information Partnership official now with the Centre for Information Resilience, spoke openly about his desire to censor critics of the war, including Matė. Burley, who “designed, implemented, and led several of the UK Government’s counter disinformation programmes,” according to a now-deleted profile, discussed the rise of independent media critical of the Ukrainian government and Western support for a war that has devastated that country. He discussed the conflict at the Opinion Festival in Tallinn, Estonia, in August 2022.

Burley argued that social media platforms needed more “responsibility” regarding what types of content to allow. “Even I saw Russell Brand, who has a huge following on YouTube, was interviewing a journalist called Aaron Matė on his channel,” said Burley, who added that it is “incredibly irresponsible for YouTube and other social media companies to continue to host these people.”

Above: The National Endowment for Democracy touts pro-NATO political upheaval in Ukraine and credits its long-term investments in local media and journalism.


The organizations supported by the U.S. government have also sought to silence critics inside Ukraine.  Before the war, in one of President Zelensky’s first controversial acts to stifle political opposition, he moved in February 2021 to close television channels 112, NewsOne, and ZIK – stations owned by Viktor Medvedchuk and his associate Taras Kozak, former lawmakers with the Opposition Party of Life, a bloc opposed to Zelensky – over allegations of Kremlin ties.

“The sanctions against TV channels of Mr. Medvedchuk are not about media and freedom of speech at all,” said Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to Zelensky’s chief of staff. “This is only about effective countermeasures against fakes and foreign propaganda.”

Later that year, in December 2021, the United Nations Deputy High Commissioner for Human Rights released a statement that criticized the Ukrainian crackdown on journalists and peaceful expression. The report cited the closure of opposition television channels and other media.

The USAID-funded Ukrainian media network, however, was quick to defend the Zelensky government. The decision to close the outlets, wrote Detector Media, was “not an attack on freedom of speech” because the channels, the group argued, provided “informational support of Russian aggression against Ukraine.”

In May 2022, the Zelensky government widely expanded its efforts to outlaw the political opposition. Zelensky moved to ban 11 political parties over alleged ties to Russia. The largest of which was Medvedchuk’s Opposition Party of Life, which previously held 44 seats in the Verkhovna Rada, the Ukrainian parliament.

Later that summer, other bills to crack down on media rights that had failed to pass in the past over civil liberty concerns were brought back into consideration. Mykyta Poturayev, a Ukrainian legislator and close ally of Zelensky, re-introduced the On Media Law.

The legislation features provisions to penalize hate speech and disinformation, as well as broad powers to limit certain forms of foreign influence. Among its most contentious provisions is the power granting a council controlled by Zelensky and his allies to ban media outlets without a court order. 

Before Zelensky signed the bill in December 2022, many journalists spoke out against the legislation. The European Federation of Journalists and the Committee to Protect Journalists denounced it as an extreme violation of journalistic freedom. Ukraine’s National Union of Journalists described the bill as the “biggest threat to free speech in independent [Ukraine’s] history.”

Again, the USAID-funded media groups provided pivotal support amid a tightening on journalistic freedom. The push to support the bill was largely led by U.S.-government-backed think tanks and media outlets. As the Ukrainian legislature moved forward, Detector Media reported a new statement from select journalists and nonprofits who supported the controversial legislation. The statement argued that the Zelensky-appointed council overseeing media was an “independent regulator” and urged the adoption of the law as a tool to counteract foreign aggression.

The statement was organized by Ukraine’s Center for Democracy and Rule of Law. In 2022, the group received 76.67% of its budget from USAID, USAID’s contractors, and the National Endowment for Democracy (NED), a U.S. government-funded nonprofit that was spun out of the Central Intelligence Agency in the 1980s.

The other signatories of the statement included the Laboratory of Digital Security and Human Rights Platform – both funded by USAID and Internews, a California-based USAID contractor that manages much of the agency’s Ukraine media work. Internews Ukraine, the company’s in-house Ukraine media outlet, also signed the statement supporting the On Media Law.

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Internews is a significant pillar of USAID’s $35 million Ukraine media program. Other European governments and private sector donors, led by billionaires Pierre Omidyar via the Omidyar Network and George Soros via the International Renaissance Foundation, have financed the network of media and activists working with the USAID groups.

Disclosures suggest other supplemental funding has been rushed to local Ukrainian media. In 2021, before Russia’s invasion, Detector Media received 35.1% of its nearly $1 million budget from Internews. New data released by the federal government shows that USAID provided a $2.5 million direct grant to Detector Media last year.

In a report titled “Long-Term Investments Pay Dividends in Ukraine,” NED noted that U.S.-backed groups have been pivotal in reshaping the country’s law. It pointed to a coalition of nonprofits led by the Coalition Reanimation Package of Reforms, a USAID-backed group that mobilized civil society to lobby for legal and legislative changes. The group was pivotal in the push for the On Media Law. The group hailed the law’s passage, calling it one of the major achievements of reforms passed during the war.

After the legislation was passed, Detector Media attacked “Pro-Russian Telegram channels” for spreading “fakes and manipulations” about the law. One fact-check published by the group claimed that the law “had to be adopted in the context of Ukraine’s European integration.” The post countered claims that the law introduces authoritarian forms of censorship by pointing to the fact that “media professionals and members of the public were involved in its development.”

NED, the former CIA arm, has publicly touted the effort to pass the On Media Law for its work in reshaping Ukraine’s media landscape. In a report written in collaboration with Detector Media, the group discusses the law with respect to bolstering efforts to “rid the Ukrainian information space of harmful Russian propaganda.” The report noted some journalistic criticism of the proposal, concluded that it was “supported by the majority of media related civil society organizations and international donors for its expansion of democratic accountability in the information space.”

Unmentioned in NED and Detector Media’s claims of widespread media support for the law is its own central role and that of other USAID-backed groups.

Above: Samantha Power, the administrator of USAID, was interviewed on July 20, 2023, by the Public Broadcasting Company of Ukraine, also known as Suspilne, Ukrainian for “Public.” Suspilne has received significant funding from USAID over the last decade.

In the midst of the first months of the Russian invasion, many in Ukraine readily accepted the need for emergency government influence. The Ukrainian government condensed the major television channels into a single “United News” national broadcast that continues today. Many journalists voluntarily paused critical reporting of the Ukrainian government to focus on coverage of the Russian invasion.

Now, over two years into the conflict, reporters are facing new difficulties in reporting on routine issues. Journalists taking a critical look at the government are facing intimidation and threats.

The Columbia Journalism Review has chronicled the precarious situation independent journalists face in today’s Ukraine. In January, a pair of thugs went to the home of Yuriy Nikolov, a prominent investigative journalist who has uncovered scandals involving military catering contracts. The men tried to break down Nikolov’s door, and according to his mother, who was home, called him a “provocateur” and a “traitor.”

That same month, an anonymous video released videos from hidden cameras showing journalists with Bihus.Info – a local media outlet that has extensively reported on Ukrainian government corruption – using illegal drugs in private. Denys Bihus, the head of the site, has reported on Ukraine’s intelligence service’s involvement in the surveillance and intimidation of his media outlet.

Anatoly Shariy, a controversial Ukrainian blogger living in exile over repeated death threats, has clashed repeatedly with USAID’s network of media outlets. Shariy is known for his blistering criticism of the 2014 Maidan Revolution that toppled pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych and set Ukraine on a path to alignment with NATO. The SBU, the Ukrainian intelligence agency, has accused him of “high treason” over alleged ethnic slurs targeted towards the people of the western region of Ukraine.

In July 2023, the agency added new charges, claiming Shariy distributed staged videos of Ukrainian prisoners under detention by Russian forces. The SBU has attempted to extradite Shariy, who has moved from the Netherlands to Spain and reportedly to Italy for asylum.

Online reporting in English, though, is dominated by USAID media outlets. A search for Shariy’s name returns half a dozen articles by VoxUkraine, Detector Media, the Institute of Mass Information, and the New Voice of Ukraine. The articles trash Shariy as a pro-Russian propagandist and criminal, guilty of a variety of speech-related crimes.

“In his Telegram posts, Shariy tries to emphasize that Russia is more united and stronger than Ukraine,” Detector Media claimed. “He rejects the severing of any ties between Ukraine and Russia. Even in the face of proven Russian lies and evidence of their crimes, Shariy continues to promote narratives favorable to Russia and disseminate disinformation.”

The Detector Media article provides little substance in terms of any illegal actions beyond Shariy’s viewpoints. But expressing viewpoints that run counter to Ukraine and NATO policies with respect to the war is enough to make an individual an enemy of the state.

Header Photo: Brigadier-General Oleksii Hromov, Deputy Chief of the Main Operational Directorate of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine speaks during a press conference of representatives of the Security and Defense Forces of Ukraine at the Military Media Center in Kyiv, Ukraine, on April 13, 2023. (Photo by Vladimir Shtanko/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)

Stephen Bryen: NATO starts deploying troops as Russia races to win

By Stephen Bryen, Asia Times, 4/26/24

Stephen Bryen served as staff director of the Near East Subcommittee of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and as a deputy undersecretary of defense for policy.

NATO is starting to deploy combat troops to Ukraine. Soldiers from Poland, France, the UK, Finland and other NATO members are arriving in larger numbers.

Although Russia says there are over 3,100 mercenaries in Ukraine, these newly arriving troops are not mercenaries. They are in uniform, home country proclaimed via insignia. They mostly are concentrated in the western part of the country, although in some cases they are close to the actual fighting in the east.

NATO is putting out the word these are not combat soldiers but are in Ukraine to operate sophisticated western hardware. But if they are firing at the Russians the only proper way to interpret their presence is that they are playing an active part in the shooting war.

More or less this is the same pattern that the US used when it sent “advisors” to Vietnam. In fact, they were US Special Forces who engaged in combat.

The Biden administration, at least for public consumption, says it opposes sending NATO soldiers to Ukraine. But Biden in truth may be waiting for his reelection before he gives the order for US soldiers to fight in Ukraine. After Biden is reelected, he will have a free hand. The recent passage of the $60 billion air bill for Ukraine signals that Congress will go along with whatever the Biden administration wants to do “fighting the Russians.”

The national security establishment fears a Russian victory in Ukraine. It would constitute a major setback in America’s security strategy and would be a blow, even a fatal one, to NATO.

Reportedly the Russian army is now 15% bigger than it was before the Ukraine war. It is also far more experienced, and the Russians have found ways to deal with US high tech systems, such as jamming and spoofing.

Meanwhile NATO is far behind Russia in weapons, manpower and industrial might. Furthermore, stockpiles of weapons are very low and equipment supposedly for national defense has been sent to Ukraine, leaving defenses wanting.

The consensus opinion in the US National Security establishment is that Ukraine is losing its war with the Russians and could potentially face the collapse of its army.

There already are reports that some brigades in the Ukrainian armed forces refused orders from their commanders. Those include the 25th Airborne Assault Brigade; the 115th Brigade; the 67th Mechanized Brigade (which abandoned positions in Chasiv Yar) and the 47th Mechanized (which demanded rotation after more than a year on the front lines). These are top Army brigades and not territorial defense units.

The Russians know what is going on and they are targeting foreign forces while also grinding down Ukrainian fighting units, inflicting heavy casualties. The Russians say Ukraine has already lost almost 500,000 troops in the war, and the numbers destroyed in combat grow on a daily basis.

Ukraine is desperate to find new recruits, and it is getting some help from countries where Ukrainian draft-age refugees are hiding out. Lithuania is planning to send Ukrainian draft-age men home. So is Poland.

A report on training of Ukrainian F-16 pilots also is revealing. According to some of the western officers working with the Ukrainians, progress even after a year teaching pilots to operate F-16s has been less than a success. Language barriers and unfamiliarity with western systems and combat tactics, has proven to slow the learning process. Rumors have it that when the F-16s finally begin arriving in Ukraine this summer, the planes are likely to be handled by “retired” pilots from European air forces.

NATO’s plan to try and ward off disaster seems to be to fill in gaps in Ukraine’s forces by importing “advisers,” waiting for the US to commit its army to the battle after the election in November. The Russians know this and are in a race to try and collapse Ukraine’s army before Biden returns to office, if in fact he does. If the Russians are successful, a bigger war in Europe will be avoided. If not, with the introduction of US forces, Europe will be plunged into World War III.

YouGov Poll: Most Americans think there will be another world war within the next decade

YouGov, 3/21/24

A new YouGov survey asked Americans about the possibility of another world war, the role that other countries might play, the roles they themselves might play, and how the U.S. should respond to hypothetical nuclear attacks abroad and at home. The majority of Americans believe that another world war is at least somewhat likely to happen in the next five to 10 years, but most don’t think they would volunteer to serve in military roles or non-combatant roles if the U.S. were to be involved.

22% of Americans think it’s very likely that there will be another world war within the next five to 10 years; 39% say it’s somewhat likely. One-third of Republicans think it’s very likely that there will be another world war in the next decade; 20% of Independents and 16% of Democrats agree.

If another world war were to break out, 77% of Americans believe the U.S. would be involved. Just 6% say the U.S. would not be involved, and the remaining 18% are unsure.

72% believe that if another world war were to break out, Russia would be involved and would be on a different side than the U.S. A similar percentage (69%) say the same of China.

The countries that Americans are most likely to say would be involved in a hypothetical global conflict and on the same side as the U.S. are the United Kingdom (67%), Ukraine (58%), and Israel (58%).

If there were to be a world war in which the U.S. and their allies were fighting against Russia, China, or both, Americans are more likely to say that the Western nations would win than to say they would lose.

In the case of a war involving Russia and its allies, 53% think Western nations and their allies would win. If the war were to be China and their allies facing Western nations and their allies, 48% of Americans think the Western nations would win. If both China and Russia — and their allies — were fighting Western nations and their allies in a world war, 45% of Americans say the Western nations would win. In each hypothetical war, 12% or fewer expect a loss for the Western nations.

Republicans are particularly likely to say Western nations and their allies would win against Russia (60%), China (56%), and both China and Russia together (55%).

similar YouGov poll conducted in the U.K. found that Britons also are more likely to say Western nations and their allies would win in each scenario than say they would lose. 44% think they would win over Russia, 38% say the same about a conflict with China, and 31% think Western nations would win over China, Russia, and their allies. However, 21% of British adults believe that Western forces would lose to China, Russia, and their allies in the event of a world war.

If a world war involving the U.S. were to break out, 6% of Americans say they would volunteer for military service, 9% say they would not volunteer but would serve if called up, and 13% say they would not volunteer and would refuse to serve if called up; 60% say they don’t believe the armed forces would want them to serve due to age or disability. However, if the U.S. were under imminent threat of invasion, the percentage of people who would volunteer for military service is higher: 16%. 47% say that even in this case, they don’t believe the armed forces would want them to serve due to age or disability.

Americans are more open to the idea of serving in non-combat roles in the event of a world war. 19% say they would volunteer for this type of role; 12% would not volunteer but would serve if called up. If the U.S. were under imminent threat of invasion, 26% would volunteer for non-combat service. 42% of Americans say the government would not want them for non-combat roles for reasons related to age or disability; 38% say the government would not want them to serve for these reasons even if the U.S. were under imminent threat of invasion.

Many Americans believe that nuclear weapons would play a role in potential global conflicts. 68% of Americans say it’s likely that a future world war would involve the use of nuclear weapons, including 64% of Democrats and 78% of Republicans.

https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/sOyNW/1/

YouGov’s survey also asked about specific scenarios related to the use of nuclear weapons by Russia and China.

If Russia were to use nuclear weapons against Ukraine — which Russia president Vladimir Putin has said his country is ready to do if Russia’s sovereignty or independence is threatened — most Americans say the U.S. should take action of some kind, though few favor the use of nuclear weapons in response.

If Russia were to use a small nuclear weapon against a Ukrainian military target — and if the U.S. and Western nations were not already at war with Russia — 11% of Americans think the U.S. should launch a nuclear retaliation against Russia. 21% say the best course of action would be to declare war against Russia, but not use nuclear weapons, while 30% say the U.S. should take action short of declaring war.

If Russia were to use a nuclear weapon against a city in Ukraine, 13% think the U.S. should launch a nuclear retaliation and 22% think the country should declare war but not use nuclear weapons. 28% think the U.S should take action short of declaring war.

Similar majorities of Americans think the U.S. and other Western nations should take action of some kind in the event of China using nuclear weapons against Taiwan — but use of nuclear weapons in response is unpopular. If China were to use a small nuclear weapon against a Taiwanese military target, 11% think the U.S. should launch a nuclear retaliation and 22% think the U.S. should declare war but not use nuclear weapons. 27% think the U.S. should take action short of declaring war and 13% say it should take no action.

If China were to use a nuclear weapon against a city in Taiwan, 14% think the U.S. should launch a nuclear retaliation, 23% think it should declare war but not use nuclear weapons and 25% think it should take action short of declaring war.

There is far more support for nuclear retaliation — though still far less than majority support — in the case of a hypothetical scenario in which the U.S. were the target of a nuclear attack. If another country were to use a small nuclear weapon against a U.S. military target, 27% would support nuclear retaliation and 30% think the U.S. should declare war but not use nuclear weapons.

If a nuclear weapon were used against a city in the U.S., 38% think the best option would be to launch a nuclear retaliation against that country and 27% think the U.S. should declare war but not use nuclear weapons.

— Taylor Orth and Carl Bialik contributed to this article

Related:

See the results for this YouGov poll

Methodology: The YouGov poll was conducted online on February 1 – 7, 2024 among 1,000 U.S. adult citizens. Respondents were selected from YouGov’s opt-in panel using sample matching. A random sample (stratified by gender, age, race, education, geographic region, and voter registration) was selected from the 2019 American Community Survey. The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, education, 2020 election turnout and presidential vote, baseline party identification, and current voter registration status. Demographic weighting targets come from the 2019 American Community Survey. Baseline party identification is the respondent’s most recent answer given prior to November 1, 2022, and is weighted to the estimated distribution at that time (33% Democratic, 31% Republican). The margin of error for the overall sample is approximately 4%.

Image: Getty (Fox Photos / Stringer)

Glenn Diesen: NATO’s Delusion That it Can Continue to Send More Powerful Weapons to Ukraine Without Russian Retaliation is Dangerous

By Glenn Diesen, Twitter/X, 4/24/24

Glenn Diesen is a Norwegian academic and political scientist. He is a professor at the School of Business of the University of South-Eastern Norway.

The idea that NATO can continue to send ever-more powerful and long-range weapons to Ukraine without any retaliation from Russia is premised on the dangerous self-delusion that NATO is not a participant in the conflict.

But if we accept that this is also a NATO War, then it is obvious that Russia will eventually feel compelled to retaliate against NATO to restore deterrence, which could trigger a nuclear war.

Consider the following:

– Immediately after President Yanukovich had been toppled with the support of the US, the first thing the new US-backed Ukrainian intelligence chief did was to call CIA & MI6 for a partnership against Russia – and secret CIA bases were established along the Russian border (this partnership was established before Russia responded by taking back Crimea). (NY Times)

– This occurred as the US asserted ever-greater control over the Ukrainian government and its policies: The leaked Nuland call revealed that Washington dictated who would be part of the post-coup government and who had to stay out. American citizens also took several top positions in the new government (such as the finance minister post). Ukraine’s General Prosecutor Shokin argued the US was running Ukraine as a colony as new appointments had to be approved by Washington. Biden even fired Shokin when he investigated the Ukrainian energy company Burisma where Biden had placed his son Hunter

– Over the next decade, the US and its allies built a powerful Ukrainian army while sabotaging the Minsk agreement and later (after the Russian invasion) also sabotaged the Istanbul negotiations. Weapon systems poured in, Ukrainian ports were modernised to fit American warships, and Ukraine was becoming a de facto NATO member. Top Ukrainian officials like Arestovich argued openly they were preparing for a war with Russia. A top adviser to former president Nicolas Sarkozy, warned that the US-Ukraine Charter on Strategic Partnership of November 2021 “convinced Russia that it must attack or be attacked” (NY Times)

– Since the Russian invasion, the mantra from NATO has since been that weapons are the path to peace while refusing to engage in negotiations or diplomacy for more than 2 years. Our media keeps ignoring the horrific Ukrainian losses and instead chant that Ukraine is winning to maintain public support for the war. NATO has supplied the weapons, intelligence, and participated in in the war planning. A source in the Ukrainian general staff even argued that NATO pressured Ukraine to carry out disastrous counter-offensives.

https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/08/20/ukraines-sluggish-counter-offensive-is-souring-the-public-mood

– More powerful and long-range weapons are now sent and Blinken argues that Ukraine can use them to strike inside Russian territory. Leaked calls from German officers reveal that long-range missiles are to be used to destroy the Crimean bridge and that either Germans or Americans can assist in operating them

https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/russian-tape-of-secret-german-meeting-reveals-berlins-thinking-on-sending-missiles-to-ukraine-a3a02cc3

– Putin is saying that the US objective was “to spark a war in Europe, and to eliminate competitors by using a proxy force… They plan to finish us once and for all”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/04/18/russia-ukraine-war-us-involvement-leaked-documents

– The US should ask itself: How would Washington respond if Russia was engaged in a similar proxy war against the US on its borders in Mexico? The conviction in our own virtue, that we are merely “helping Ukraine”, blinds us to the fact that we are taking giant steps toward nuclear war.

RT – Russia less reliant on oil and gas exports – PM

RT, 4/3/24

The Russian economy is growing while becoming less reliant on oil and gas exports, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin told lawmakers on Wednesday. The government’s revenue is increasing, allowing Moscow to finance growth and development projects, and to meet social obligations, he added.

The federal budget income surpassed 29 trillion rubles ($314 billion) in 2023, a rise of almost 5% compared to the previous year, the head of the Russian government said, as he presented his report to the State Duma. “Non-oil-and-gas income grew by a quarter,” he told MPs.

The economy, he said, “is becoming less dependent on the export of the raw materials.” According to Mishustin, the nation’s GDP increased by 3.6% last year, more than double the average growth reported by most developed nations over the same period, which amounted to 1.6%.

Total industrial output grew by 3.5%, the prime minister said, adding that the manufacturing sector demonstrated growth of 7.5%, while the unemployment rate was cut in half by the end of 2023 and amounted to 3%.

Russia also witnessed record high investments last year, which grew by 10% and reached the highest level in 12 years, according to the official. He added that the policies of the Russian central bank also allowed for inflation to be reined in, reducing it from 11.9% to 7.4%.

The nation’s debt, which is 17% of GDP, remains at a “secure level,” Mishustin noted, pointing out that it is far lower than in the West. Earlier this week, the central bank reported that as of January 1, “the external debt of the Russian Federation amounted to $316.8 billion, having decreased by $68.2 billion, or by 17.7%, over the course of [2023].”

Moscow has also managed to circumvent what Mishustin called a trade blockade imposed by the West in the form of sanctions. Russia’s trade volume with “friendly nations” surpassed $548 billion last year, which was roughly equal to the turnover Russia had with the whole world, including Western nations, four years ago, according to the prime minister.

In early March, The Economist reported that the Russian economy had “defied the doomsayers” and returned to its pre-conflict performance levels despite unprecedented sanctions imposed by the US and its allies over the Ukraine conflict.

In late February, President Vladimir Putin said that Russia was on track to become the fourth largest economy in the world in terms of purchasing power parity (PPP). The nation had already become the biggest economy in Europe in terms of PPP, he added.

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