Russia Matters: Trump Cancels Summit With Putin, Sanctions Russia’s Largest Oil Producers

Russia Matters, 10/24/25

  1. The White House canceled the planned Trump-Putin summit and imposed sanctions on Russia’s two largest oil companies after an Oct. 20 call between U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov revealed that the Kremlin is clinging to its long-held positions, namely that Ukraine hand over control of the entire Donbas region as part of any settlement, U.S. officials told The Wall Street Journal.1 According to CNN, it was not only Vladimir Putin’s maximalist demands on Kyiv, but also his refusal to agree to an immediate ceasefire and Russia’s continued strikes on civilians in Ukraine that “all added up, in Donald Trump’s mind, to a clear signal that nothing really had changed.” “I just felt it was time,” Trump himself said moments after the new sanctions were announced on the pair of Russia’s oil giants, Rosneft and Lukoil.2 Commenting on the sanctions, Putin said they will have “serious implications for us, but they will not significantly affect our economic well-being,”3 while his deputy at Russia’ Security Council Dmitry Medvedev wrote that the U.S. has now “fully embarked on the warpath against Russia,” according to Kremlin.ru and WSJ, respectively. With Rosneft and Lukoil penalized, three-quarters of Russian oil exports will come from companies under new U.S. sanctions, according to Kommersant’s calculations.4 Analysts say the impact of blacklisting Rosneft and Lukoil will hinge on three things: how well they are enforced, the reaction of major markets in India and China and whether Moscow can circumvent the measures, according to WSJ.5 The U.S. announcement was coordinated with the EU, which adopted its own new package of sanctions targeting Russian energy, banks, crypto exchanges and entities in China, according to the European Council, Financial Times and Bloomberg.
  2. Putin threatens an overwhelming response to use of Western long-range missiles by Ukraine for deep strikes into Russia even as Trump denies authorizing use of such missiles for long-range strikes. On Oct. 22, WSJ wrote, citing U.S. officials, that “the Trump administration has lifted a key restriction on Ukraine’s use of some long-range missiles provided by Western allies.” “U.S. officials said they expect Ukraine to conduct more cross-border attacks using the Storm Shadow, which is launched from Ukrainian aircraft and can travel more than 180 miles. The U.S. can restrict Ukraine’s use of Storm Shadow because the missiles use American targeting data,” according to WSJ. Speaking on the same day,  however, Trump rejected the WSJ report. “The Wall Street Journal story on the U.S.A.’s approval of Ukraine being allowed to use long range missiles deep into Russia is FAKE NEWS!” Trump wrote on Truth Social, according to The Hill. Despite this denial and Trump’s earlier decision not to allow supplies of Tomahawks to Ukraine, the Kremlin still felt it necessary to issue another warning. In a choreographed Q&A on Oct. 23, Putin was asked by Russian media: “Regarding the use of Western long-range weapons, how do you personally assess the evidently contradictory signals coming from Washington? Recently, The Washington Post and The Wall Street Journal reported that the U.S. has lifted a key restriction on the use of such weapons. … In your view, is this still an escalation?” Putin’s answer was: “This is an attempt at escalation. However, if such weapons are used to strike Russian territory, the response will be very serious, if not overwhelming. Let them think about that.”
  3. Putin oversees test-launches of long-range missiles operated by all three elements of Russia’s strategic nuclear triad. On Oct. 22, Putin oversaw a strategic nuclear forces exercise involving launches of a Yars ICBM from Plesetsk, of a Sineva SLBM from the Bryansk submarine in the Barents Sea and “a volley of air-launched cruise missile” fired by Tu-95MS bombers. The exercise “evaluated the readiness of military command bodies and the operational staff’s proficiency in organizing and managing the troops (forces) under their command,” according to the Kremlin. Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov “was a bit more specific”: the goal of the exercise was to “practice the procedures for authorizing the use of nuclear weapons,” according to renowned Russian nuclear forces expert Pavel Podvig.
  4. In the week of Oct. 14–21, 2025, Russia gained 33 square miles of Ukraine’s territory, down from the previous week’s gain of 48 square miles, according to the Oct. 22, 2025, issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. In the past four weeks (Sept. 23–Oct. 21, 2025), Russian forces gained 128 square miles of Ukrainian territory, a decrease from the 206 square miles these forces gained during the previous four-week period (Aug. 26–Sept. 23, 2025), according to the card, which analyzes ISW data for measuring changes in territorial control in the Russian-Ukrainian war. Since Jan. 1, 2025, average Russian monthly gains have been 168 square miles and, as of Oct. 21, 2025, Russia controlled 19% of Ukraine’s territory, according to the card.