Russia Matters, 5/11/26

“I believe that the matter is coming to an end, but this is really a serious matter,” Vladimir Putin declared regarding the Ukraine conflict during a Q&A following this year’s Victory Day parade, casting the war as a proxy struggle with “the so‑called globalist part of the Western elites.” Commenting on Putin’s remark, Kommersant’s veteran Kremlin pool reporter Andrei Kolesnikov argued that “changes have appeared in Vladimir Putin’s position. He has begun to think of something, possibly different, about this war.” “In Vladimir Putin’s opinion, the end is near,” Kolesnikov added in his account of the May 9 Q&A. Putin’s declaration constitutes “one of the Kremlin’s clearest indications yet that Moscow may be seeking a negotiated settlement after more than four years of fighting,” according to long-time Berlin-based Russia watcher Ben Aris. In contrast, Moscow-based analyst Georgii Bovt warns against literal readings of Putin’s declaration that “the matter is coming to an end,” calling the phrase rhetoric “addressed to the public,” which both craves an end and is meant to hear that “victory itself is near.” In her latest R. Politik Bulletin, France-based Russian political analyst Tatyana Stanovaya argues that Putin’s unusually upbeat claim that the war “is coming to an end” reflects his perception of a fragmenting West rather than any genuine readiness to compromise. A Telegram channel attributed to well-known Russian blogger Anatoly Nesmiyan observes that Putin’s remark sparked a wave of commentary, with some seeing “no visible reasons for the war to end.” “Yet in an autocratic regime, rationality is secondary, and a conflict can begin or end without clear cause,” according to the Otrkytye Prostranstva (Open Space) Telegram channel. Our search of Putin’s speeches on May 9 in 2022–2025 on the Kremlin’s website netted repeated closing calls “For Victory!” by Putin, but no declarations that the war in Ukraine is coming to an end. Russia’s recent territorial losses in Ukraine and modest declines in Putin’s popularity (which is still above 60% and is perhaps partially driven by shrinking economic output) may have played a role if Putin’s claim did constitute a signal that he wants to end the war soon.*

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Putin’s Bitter Reckoning With Europe: An Analysis of Vladimir Putin’s Victory Day Comments

By Alexander Mercouris, Substack, 5/10/26

Putin’s press conference yesterday was interesting because it highlighted his deep feeling of anger and betrayal by Europe.

(1) He reminded the journalists (all Russians) that the crisis began with the EU insisting Ukraine ratify an Association Agreement incompatible with Ukraine’s free trade agreement with Russia. When Ukraine demurred the Maidan coup was the result;

(2) He said Europe’s objective in 2022 was to engineer Russia’s collapse so that the Europeans would be able to help themselves to its parts. In a truly extraordinary passage, he spoke of Finland joining NATO in order to participate in the plunder;

(3) He gave a very bitter account of the events of April 2022 and of the failure of the Istanbul Agreement.

Briefly: He revealed for the first time that it was Macron who called him and tricked him into pulling Russian troops back from Kiev, telling him that “the Ukrainians could not be expected (to sign the Istanbul Agreement) with a gun pointing at their head”. He was careful to say that the Russians recorded the conversation and have Macron saying all this on tape.

He then spoke about how, once the Russian troops had been withdrawn, ‘another colourful character’ – Boris Johnson – told the Ukrainians to ditch the Istanbul Agreement in return for unlimited Western support.

I came away with the clear impression that Putin believes Macron and Johnson were working together and had it all worked out in advance;

(4) He accused the Europeans of using Ukraine as a proxy in their conflict with Russia;

(5) He signalled that the only major West European political figure he retains any trust in is Gerhard Schroder, who is of course out of power;

(6) Contrary to many reports, Putin did NOT say that he believes the Ukraine conflict is coming to an end. This belief stems from misreporting of his words by a TASS journalist.

If Putin’s words are read carefully it is clear his meaning was quite different. It is that with the failure to bring about the collapse of Russia that which on The Duran we call ‘Project Ukraine’, ie. the West’s (in Putin’s view, Europe’s) bid to use Ukraine as a tool to destabilise Russia, is coming to an end.

Perhaps wrongly, Putin appears to blame the Europeans more for ‘Project Ukraine’ than he does the Americans.

(7) Putin did float the possibility that with the failure of Project Ukraine, and with the crisis this has caused in Europe, a new generation of European leaders might find a way back towards a reconciliation with Russia. However, he did not seem to me to say this with much conviction;

(8) As for the Americans, Putin appears to think that their various diplomatic initiatives of the last year to end the war have run into a wall and are effectively over.

Many people will say that Putin has a paranoid view of Europe and its intentions. He however would point to Europe’s actions (eg. he spoke about Europe’s work fabricating Ukraine’s drones) and its rhetoric, which is frankly terrible. Certainly, in Russia his opinions are widely shared.

This is where in Europe relentless hostility, extreme rhetoric, and a total rejection of dialogue with the Russians, has led us. If the Russians and their leader now entertain these views of us, we should not be surprised.