By Oliver Boyd-Barrett, Substack, 4/30/26
Trump-Putin Telephone Call
Politico reports that in a telephone conversation yesterday with Putin, President Donald Trump projected confidence that a resolution to the Russia-Ukraine war would come “relatively quickly.” Putin told Trump about plans to call a temporary ceasefire to mark the Victory Day celebration in May. According to Politico, Putin also expressed a desire to play an active role in Iran, which Trump said he quickly rebuffed.
“He told me he’d like to be involved with the enrichment if he can help us get it,” Trump told reporters. “I said, I’d much rather have you be involved with ending the war with Ukraine. To me, that would be more important.”
Naturally, for Trump, this was a deeply deceptive claim. In a previous phone call in March, Putin had made it clear that Russia opposed the US-Israeli aggressive and unprovoked attack on Iran. Putin’s aide Yuri Ushakov’s summary of the call said that the call was “business-like, frank, and constructive,” and also “friendly,” lasting over an hour. Putin supported Trump’s ceasefire extension on Iran, but warned of severely adverse consequences for Iran, its neighbors and the entire international community if U.S./Israel take further military action against Iran tand discussed mediation. Putin stressed that a ground operation would be particularly unacceptable and dangerous. On Ukraine, Putin proposed a May 9 Victory Day ceasefire, which Trump reportedly supported, while citing Russian advances on the front line. Ushakov stated Trump expressed interest in ending the Ukraine conflict quickly, with Putin confirming Russia’s readiness for a negotiated settlement. Putin’s spokesman Dmiry Peskov, asked about this, was skeptical that a single telephone call was going to do much to bring an end to such a complex conflict. Other things discussed included the global oil market, and maintaining regular communication.
Hypersonic Missiles Against Iran
In referring to the “concluded” phase of armed confrontation with Iran, Trump may have told Putin that he was not contemplating further missile attacks or ground operations. If so, this would leave open the possibility that the US intends to maintain the current blockade in the expectation that this alone may cripple Iran to the point that it would have to surrender. Judging by reports that Iran is losing half a billion dollars a day in oil trade, its currency badly depreciating, the rate of inflation having risen to 50%, and that Kharg Island is nearing storage capacity, forcing Iran to reduce oil production and forgo a further $170 million per day, and causing permanent damage to Iran’s oil infrastructure this does not seem implausible. But on this question, Larry Johnson cites a report that Iran’s Majlis speaker Ghalibaf is “ridiculing Scott Bessent’s wild claims that the blockade is going to destroy Iran’s ability to export oil. He clearly is not concerned and is mocking Bessent’s insistence that Iranian oil wells are on the verge of collapsing.”
News that the one of the three US aircraft carriers in the region, the Gerald Ford – the one most affected by recent difficulties involving a fire, plumbing problems and substandard food – is moving away, it is even possible that the US is pursuing the entirely different option of de-escalation and backing away, with a view to normalizing the Gulf and bring down oil prices (which as I write on April 30th have peaked at $114 a barrel, an improvement on yesterday’s $120 peak), and reducing the cost of the war (currently estimated at $25 billion, but probably much higher) to the US, as well as the ways in which the war has exposed deep deficiencies in US military and weapons preparedness.
However, based on reports as of April 30, 2026, the British Daily Telegraph, a pro-war outlet with respect both to Ukraine and Iran – and in the context of rumors that the US is planning another sneak attack on Iran, despite the ceasefire – the US Central Command (CENTCOM) has requested to deploy the Army’s Dark Eagle hypersonic missile system to the Middle East for potential use against Iran. The deployment is intended to target Iranian missile launchers that have been moved beyond the range of existing US systems, specifically to counter, or “strike,” launchers deep inside Iranian territory. The Dark Eagle system, also known as the Long-Range Hypersonic Weapon (LRHW), is technically still under development and has not yet been declared fully operational, though it is nearing that stage. These missiles are designed to glide at speeds exceeding five times the speed of sound and can maneuver to avoid interception. This move comes amid ongoing tensions. While a tentative ceasefire has been in place since early April 2026, the request suggests the US is preparing for further military action. As of the latest reports, a decision on this request has not been finalized.
The Wall Street Journal yesterday reported that, contrary to reports of hypersonic missiles, Trump has opted for economic warfare against Iran as it carried less risk, instead of resuming bombing or trying to exit the conflict. US President Donald Trump has instructed his aides to prepare for an “extended blockade” against the Islamic Republic of Iran (Cradle). But one problem with the political-economy of the US blockade, as argued yesterday by Larry Johnson on Sonar21 (Sonar 21) is that if the US stops an Iranian vessel and takes control of it, then the US Navy must assign one ship to accompany it to a location the US controls.
“The US does not have enough US Navy ships to carry out such a mission on a broad scale. All Iran needs to do is load up 20 tankers and send them to sea simultaneously. The US may be able to stop two or three, but the rest will penetrate the blockade and arrive at their respective destinations.”
Iran can allow ships heading toward friendly nations to pass through the Strait in numbers that will make it impossible for the US Navy to stop them. (Although insurers and ship owners may not be comfortable with the risks). Furthermore, Pakistan has opened six corridors with Iran to bypass the US blockade. More than 3,000 containers bound for Iran are being transited over land.
There are rumors to the effect that the US blockading effort could switch or extend to the Strait of Malacca. A Malacca Strait blockade refers to the strategic, hypothetical, or active disruption of the narrow waterway between Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, which handles 25% of global trade and 80% of China’s oil imports. Often considered a critical vulnerability for China—the “Malacca Dilemma.”
The strait is the primary chokepoint between the Indian Ocean and the South China Sea. Disruptions, such as a blockade, could cause oil prices to surge and cripple supply chains, specifically targeting China. China’s would have to find alternative routes through Pakistan, Myanmar, and Thailand. The U.S. and India hold stronger naval positioning near the strait compared to China, giving them the capability to enforce a blockade, but it is doubtful that India would be party to such an attempt. Further, it is doubtful that Indonesia, Malaysia or Singapore, all of which do substantial business with China, would be unfazed by such a development. Yet recent US efforts to intercept Iranian oil tankers have seen enforcement extend towards the Malacca Strait, creating friction over the right of “innocent passage” under international law.
The Ramstein War
Brian Berletic engaged in some useful reality checking in reminding Glenn Diesen yesterday that the US is still essentially in charge of the war against Russia over Ukraine, from the war’s command center under US control in Ramstein, Germany. The implication is, and I agree with him, that the significant drone attacks we are witnessing against important oil refineries and other assets in Tualse (for the third time, last week) and Perm (for the past two nights) are ultimately directed by the US, at the very least using US intelligence and satellite guidance.
It is, therefore, hardly accurate to say that the US has actually “abandoned” Ukraine, as apart from intelligence, mainly, it has merely instructed Europe to take over the day-to-day NATO management of the war so that the US can concentrate on Iran and the US broader war against China, of which the assault on Iran is part. Until such time as the US can refocus all its efforts on dismantling Russian, the single largest national territory on the planet.
Ramstein Air Base operates as a major hub for both the U.S. Air Force and NATO, serving as headquarters for U.S. Air Forces in Europe (USAFE) and the Allied Air Command. The host unit is the 86th Airlift which handles air mobility, while the 435th Air Ground Operations Wing provides specialized support.
The Ukraine Defense Contact Group (UDCG), commonly known as the Ramstein format, is the primary international platform coordinating military support for Ukraine against the Russian invasion. The group acts as a central hub where Ukraine communicates its immediate and long-term battlefield needs, and partners, led by the United States, announce new military packages. Established in April 2022 and named after the U.S. Air Base in Germany where the first meeting took place, it has evolved into a coalition of over 50 countries that meet monthly to synchronize, expedite, and deliver weapons to Ukraine.
The U.S. has pressured both sides to reach an agreement, with a 20-point peace framework proposed by the Trump administration in late 2025/early 2026. While direct, large-scale financial aid from the U.S. has decreased, the U.S. continues to support Ukraine through targeted military assistance, such as the $400 million in funding for the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI) approved for 2026–2027. The U.S. has actively participated in trilateral meetings, such as the February 2026 meetings in Geneva, to discuss security guarantees, prisoner exchanges, and a possible, ceasefire.