By Sylvia Demarest, Substack, 7/24/26
First a follow up– “The NDAA doesn’t ‘merge’ the US & ‘Israeli’ militaries. Why? Because there is ZERO equivalent law in ‘Israel’. ‘Israel’ gets everything—US data, joint R&D, and supply chain integration. The US gets no matching access to IOF bases, factories, or decisions. It’s an official one-way takeover.”
Introduction
Ray McGovern recently recalled John F. Kennedy’s admonition that a nuclear power should never be put in a position where it must accept humiliating defeat or use nuclear weapons. But what if the nuclear power puts itself in that position? US foreign policy is directing the proxy wars against Russia and on Iran. The US appears to be losing both wars. This means the US must either compromise, accept defeat, or turn to nuclear weapons. The result of using nuclear weapons would be WW3, and the US homeland would not be spared.
This Substack has argued that the goal of US foreign policy, through both Republican and Democratic Administrations, has been to maintain US global dominance and to prevent any challenge to that dominance. On the issues of US Militarism and Military Keynesianism, the US has been ruled by a “Uniparty” funded by the same interests. The US is also burdened by both Neoliberalism that has distorted the US economy, and by Neoconservatism (Neocons) who have pushed the wars on Russia and in the Middle East. Both ideologies are infected by Zionism.
How the Uniparty political dynamic works was clearly illustrated this week when House Democrats voted to direct President Donald Trump to end his illegal war against Iran, when just a day earlier Democrats gave up their best chances to force Trump’s hand after six Democrats provided the decisive votes to pass the annual National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA). Six Democrats rescued the bill after seven Republicans defected, leaving GOP leaders unable to pass it with Republican votes alone. The bill passed 216–212 thanks to the 6 Democrats. This is not the first time this has happened.
This is how the “Uniparty Kabuki Theater” operates in DC. The pretense that US militarism and these forever wars do not have bi-partisan support is designed to fool political partisans and allow the US to continue these wars of choice. Until the Uniparty era is ended, the risk that the US will resort to using nuclear weapons, rather than compromise or admit defeat, will persist.
The US no longer has the industrial capacity needed to support these wars of choice. Fifty years of neoliberal economic policies, decades of neocon wars and the rise of a FIRE economy has destroyed US industry and industrial expertise. FIRE stands for Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate. Remember the triple issues to be addressed and reformed if our country is to survive; Monopolization, Financialization, and Militarism. This is assuming reform is still possible without collapsing the US economy.
This is not a matter of “good versus evil” as the DC establishment would have us believe. Neither Iran nor Russia are inhabited by “evil people” nor are they led by “evil” leaders. Instead, all of us should be thankful for the patience and restraint shown thus far by the leaders of both countries.
Threats Do Not Win Wars
To its credit, the Trump administration did attempt to end the war on Iran by agreeing to the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU). Unfortunately, enormous concessions were required on Trump’s part to get the Iranians to agree. When the terms of the MOU were revealed, they were so astonishingly one-sided and favorable to Iran that the document was widely described as tantamount to an American surrender. That was the overwhelming verdict of observers, whether supporters of the war or its opponents, whether Americans or Israelis, all of whom generally described the document in such humiliating terms. Outraged Neocon hawks ferociously denounced Trump, even doing so on his own beloved Fox News network. This forced Trump violate the terms of the agreement and resume the war.
Now, an obviously frustrated President Trump has been relegated to making constant threats given the failure of US strategy. Just this week Trump made escalatory threats against nuclear and civilian Iranian targets. Trump added later that the US would destroy an Iranian bridge or power plant each time Tehran’s forces targeted a ship in the Strait of Hormuz. Trump also on Thursday warned the Houthis and Iran that they would face “major military punishment” if the attacks continued and later said “any and all damages done” to ships and cargo “will be paid for by Iranian Money that the United States has in its possession, and control.”
Even if the US tries to bomb Iranian energy infrastructure, attacks on the grid would have limited effects due to decentralization. From Global 21: “To obliterate both the electrical and oil sectors, multiple waves of missiles and guided bombs would be required against each of these targets. We are talking about 6,000 to 10,000 projectiles.”
“The Iranian electric grid is one of the most decentralized in the world, with around 130 to 150 large power plants, primarily gas-fired thermal plants. No single facility dominates large portions of the country’s electricity generation. The largest plant, Damavand near Tehran, has a capacity of approximately 2,868 MW, only about 2.9% of total installed capacity.”
“To effectively paralyze Iran’s electricity supply, an adversary would also need to target the transmission and distribution network, which stretches over 133,000 kilometers, and exceeds 1.3 million kilometers when rural and urban lines are included.”
“Adding Iran’s oil and derivatives infrastructure makes the challenge even greater. This sector includes approximately 350 to 400 main facilities distributed among processing, storage, and export units. These comprise 9 main refineries, 66 drilling platforms, and more than 10 large complexes, occupying a combined area of over 500 km² spread across Iranian territory”.
“To obliterate both the electrical and oil sectors, multiple waves of missiles and guided bombs would be required against each of these targets. We are talking about 6,000 to 10,000 projectiles, attacks that would take weeks. The ammunition simply does not exist in the American arsenal available today, except for short-range bombs. Those short-range bombs would force aviation deeper into Iranian airspace, significantly increasing aircraft losses.”
But the Trump team may go even more directly after the means of survival in Iran, as in water and grain stores. From Brett Erickson on Twitter: “My concern about Trump’s (apparent) willingness to escalate here is what the most likely escalation pathway is”.
“This isn’t about “reopening the Strait of Hormuz”, this is about terrorizing the Iranian civilians. Plain and simple.”
“My concern, however, is that he won’t stop here. Many of the most vicious Iran Hawks, the very same people that have overwhelmingly driven our Iran strategy thus far, are pushing for Trump to go much further.”
“They’re calling for Trump to strike water storage facilities. Wheat storage. To bomb vital economic infrastructure in Iran that would devastate the civilian population. To force inflation to skyrocket, the Rial to collapse, unemployment to wreak havoc.”
Trump posted on his account a video clip from the “Rumble in the Jungle” fight between Muhammad Al and George Foreman back in ’74. Does Trump understand that it is Iran that is playing the “rope-a-dope” strategy?
“This continued escalation is worrisome to markets,” said Bill Campbell, a portfolio manager at DoubleLine. “Oil is spiking at a time when things are much more precarious.” …. “Last time around I was more confident there was an off-ramp for President Trump. This time around it feels much more serious,” he added….
Meanwhile, Fox News is suggesting new war crimes for the US military to commit. Fox News discussion about Iran’s infrastructure: “What do you think we might hit first?” “I don’t know if we’ll hit it first, but the Damavand plant supplies 40% of Tehran’s electricity.”
Trump has abandoned his practice of trying to reassure markets with “A deal is nigh!” patter either directly or through anonymous sources to Barak Ravid of Axios. He is instead using Axios to signal his commitment to more violence against Iran, with no consideration for collateral damage. From Exclusive: Trump “close” to decision on “massive attack” on Iran: “President Trump told Axios on Thursday that he’s seriously considering restarting major combat operations in Iran— including strikes that would be bigger than the ones carried out during Operation Epic Fury.”
The war on Iran has the feeling of “Déjà Vue Biden” after the Neocons were unable to end the failed Ukraine war, and now an increasingly frantic Trump and his Neocons are equally pushing the war on Iran despite a failed strategy. These two old decadent men were pushed by an irresponsible apparatus to double down on their mistakes. Meanwhile, even the CIA assesses that Trump’s nightly bombing campaign is completely failing to move Iran.
The Strait of Houmuz
𝗪𝗵𝘆 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗶𝘁 𝗶𝘀 𝗻𝗼𝗻-𝗻𝗲𝗴𝗼𝘁𝗶𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗲: “The strait was never about America’s fuel. It is about America’s POWER and naval supremacy at sea, and on that ledger it is non-negotiable”.
“One. Naval supremacy itself. For 75 years the US Navy’s core claim has been that it CAN and WILL keep any sea lane open at will. If it cannot reopen Hormuz to what it was before the war, that claim is broken in front of the whole world. The day America is seen to fail at a chokepoint is the day the actual decline of its command of the seas begins, visibly, everywhere at once.”
“Two. The USD dollar. A contested strait lets Iran keep selling oil priced in Chinese yuan or barter or anything outside the dollar system entirely. Every barrel settled in yuan or anything else is a small hole in the reserve currency that underwrites American superpower status. Left open, that hole widens, and others follow through it. “
“Three. The credibility of the guarantee. Every ally that shelters under American protection is watching one test. Can Washington still deliver? Fail at Hormuz and the Gulf, Asia and Europe all quietly begin pricing a world where the guarantee is soft. This is also why Europe is on the sideline waiting and watching… Four. The precedent. If Iran, a mid-power, can close a chokepoint against the US Naval superpower and make it stick, every rival with a strait of its own takes note. Bab al-Mandeb. Malacca. The lesson travels instantly and it has”
The US Does Not Have the Industrial Capacity to Sustain These Wars
According to the Financial Times: Europe and the US would have to invest $23.6 trillion over the next 25 years to “end their reliance on China in critical industries such as manufacturing and technology, and to replicate China’s infrastructure, research, software, manufacturing and supply chain advances. Meanwhile, during those 25 years, the Chinese will have advanced into another stratosphere entirely.” The conclusion: the west can no longer win the race for industrial competence. This is an indictment of militarism and the entire strategy behind US foreign policy and NATO, especially since the dissolution of the Soviet Union. The US and NATO spent too much on militarism and war, and too little on planning, infrastructure, and developing human resources.
Five decades of US neo-liberal deindustrialization destroyed the very foundation of the industry and manufacturing needed to support US global dominance. What neoliberals failed to consider as they off shored US manufacturing was; for every industrial job lost, another 2 jobs would also be lost, along with the skills. The result, entire supply chains decayed or were transferred abroad while industrial machinery and plants rotted away. Neoliberalism threw away what took decades to build.
This entire neoliberal off shoring fiasco was designed to increase corporate profits at the expense of labor. The result has been the destruction of both the US industrial base and the knowledge base of US labor that is needed to rebuild.
US corporate management is indoctrinated to believe that labor is just a cost factor. The impact of this indoctrination can be seen in the decades of layoffs, wage cuts, union-bashing and the crushing of real wages. The effort to rebuild the US industrial base now confronts, not only the cost, but a skills and a wage gap. The “old hands” who could have handed knowledge over to the younger workers have either retired or been let go decades ago. The US education system is not designed to teach the skills that would be needed to construct the new factories. Elon Musk promises to build robots to do the job but who will run the robots?
Let’s look at the impact on weapons systems: Here’s CBS News: Rapid pace of interceptor and precision-guided weapons use worries Trump administration: “Washington — The rapid pace at which the U.S. is expending some of its most advanced air-defense interceptors and precision-guided weapons in the Middle East is a point of great tension inside the Trump administration as President Trump’s war with Iran ratchets up again, according to U.S. military and intelligence officials familiar with internal assessments. And it’s raising broader concerns about America’s readiness for a potential conflict in the Indo-Pacific. The dwindling stockpiles of defensive interceptors and long-range missiles have become a pressure point for top military and civilian leaders who are weighing the demands of the war with Iran against maintaining readiness to deter other adversaries, including China.”
—the U.S. cannot sustain the rate at which it expended precision munitions early in the campaign against Iran. The defense industrial base is not equipped to produce missiles rapidly enough to replenish munitions that have been fired or transferred to U.S. Central Command,
…..One partner country told CBS News there is a need for a pause in fighting, particularly given the intensity of Iranian strikes that have been battering Kuwait and Bahrain……
….Taken together, the numbers suggest that the central problem is not simply cost but time. Many of the weapons being fired in weeks or months cannot be replaced for years.
The US/Ukrainian Drone and Kerosene Drone War against Russia
Ukraine, with US targeting support, is sending hundreds of drones into Russia every day. While many are being shot down, Russia is a huge country so many still get through. Some of these drones are loaded with kerosene and are designed to start fires. One of the targets has been the e-commerce warehouses of Russian e-commerce company, Wildberries, as well as other warehouses. Several warehouses have burned.
My good friend, Regis Tremblay now lives in Yalta, Crimea. He reports almost daily drone attacks from early evening until dawn keeping everyone awake. The strikes included power stations and have resulted in fires and a loss of power. This is a new development in this part of Russia. Regis is very concerned about the direction of the war and the reaction of the Russian public to these drone attacks.
Reports indicate that many of the Russian refineries struck weeks and months ago are now being brought back into operation, with Russia’s fuel issues improving in many regions, which Putin himself has announced. The same goes for the “Crimea isolation” operation, as Russia is creating redundant roadways and repairing damage to allow normal traffic and cargo flows to resume. In fact, Reuters reports that Russian oil and gas revenue is up 60% year to year.
Reports also show the Russian military advancing in the Donbass and across Ukraine. This indicates that the US and Zelensky are using the drone war to try and increase civil discontent against President Putin. The risk is that instead Zelensky will ignite more fury against Ukraine amongst Russia’s civilian population, hardening—rather than dissolving—their morale.
The drone war against Russia grain shipments has also gone badly as Russian retaliation shuts down Ukraine’s ports. As of July 23, the movement of ships to Ukraine’s Black Sea ports has been suspended due to the threat of Russian attacks. Port Authorities have said of the shipping suspension: “This is a decision made by the shipowners, as the government has not imposed any restrictions,” said Vysotsky”.
Ukraine is only able to effectively reroute 1/5th or 1/6th of the cargo from these ports, implying major economic losses to the Ukrainian state which has become one of the primary issues of debate.
Despite all these spectacular drone attacks, the question remains; is Ukraine down to its last few cards, and it is using them out of desperation?
US Bases are Vulnerable
By utterly destroying all the US military bases inside its missile range, Iran has exposed a weakness that will cost the US dearly: Iran has now showed that those bases are not only vulnerable, but they are also an immense liability for the host countries. The war on Iran has shown that their existence is not to protect the host countries, it is to support US interests. The US military was apparently so convinced that no one would dare to attack any of its foreign bases that it failed to provide them with any kind of defense systems.
The US has some 800 foreign military bases around the world. Are they all completely defenseless?
What about what domestic bases? Are they defended by impressive systems or is the US mainland also defenseless? If so, what are these billions being spent on?
Momentum is Waning
Bloomberg has pointed out that momentum stocks are beginning to sell off while the broad market continues to rise.
When Jeremy Grantham was asked for signals of an imminent bubble bursting, he told us back in June that “one of the most reliable things to watch out for is when leaders of the previous bull market start to underperform while the overall market continues to rise. As he described it, this pattern reflects a shift in investor behavior — one where participants remain invested in the overall market but are shifting out of the riskiest stuff and into safer, more-established companies, which temporarily masks the underlying weakness in the headline index.”