By Ben Aris, Substack, 10/28/26
Europe has written itself out of any role in the talks to end the war in Ukraine and, despite an enormous amount of bluster, has become totally irrelevant.
Finnish President Alexander Stubb and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store called Vladimir Putin yesterday [10/27] – only the second time a European leader has talked to Putin since the start of the war (if you count the Kremlin allies Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban out of the list).
The first was French President Emmanuel Macron who talked to him last year, but admitted that he got nothing out of the conversation. Quelle surprise!
Sounds like the two Nords did get much further: the call was scheduled to last 20mins but instead they got an hour-long history lecture from Putin – who always does this and it predates the war as he did the same to Merkel when she was negotiating the Minsk I agreement. Turker Carlson was subject to the same lesson about “Vlad the Great” when he interviewed Putin – the big man clearly has a bee in his bonnet on Central European history and Russia’s right to whatever it wants.
Put another way: they didn’t talk about how to end the war.
More poignantly: this was not a negotiation or even an attempt to start peace talks.
That is not the reported substance of Putin’s conversation with Witkoff a week ago. At least Witkoff put some sort of deal on the table, even if Yuri Ushakov, Putin’s top foreign policy advisor, later said it didn’t contain much of interest to the Kremlin. However, since then there are reports now of the US going into business with Russia in oil and the Trump administration is also clearly interested in taking the Nord Stream pipeline over. So, that was a real conversation.
The call highlights how completely irrelevant the EU is in this whole saga other than wrecking its economy and emptying its own arsenal. Norway isn’t even a member of the EU. The Kremlin made it explicitly clear that it will not talk to the EU and both Nords were invited on the basis of being “neighbourly” countries. Stubb repeated this formula in his read out of the meeting. You can tell when Putin has someone by the balls as they trot out some Kremlin catch phrase when they want to butter him up. It used to be a single market “from Lisbon to Vladivostok” but I haven’t heard that one for years.
And the meeting also highlighted the growing disunity in the EU on the Russia question. Now serious talks are on again, the EU is having another go at finding someone to act as interlocutor. Stubb is a leading candidate (but I still think Schoeder should be a contender). However, the boys were immediately roasted by Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, a leading Russian hawk, for even deigning to talk to VVP.
Of course, if Europe was really serious about opening discussions with Putin, the two to go are European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas, but it’s crystal clear that the Kremlin will refuse to talk to either one. Indeed, the Kremlin has already said that it will reject any suggestions originating in Brussels out of hand.
And Kallas is so rabidly anti-Russian that even her colleagues are unhappy with her “foreign policies.”
She says bonkers things every time she stands in front of a mic and her whole plan is to “increase the pressure on Russia” until it eventually collapses and breaks into pieces. And then she oversees a process that gutted the 21st sanctions package by including a carve out that allows Greek tankers to continue to work for Russia’s shadow fleet. No wonder Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy is starting to look desperate. She has become an embarrassment to the institution and even internally she appears to have been completely sidelined as if a real but extremely delicate process does begin, her clumsy approach would almost certainly run it off the tracks.
The more subtle point here is that the Kremlin hates dealing with multinational bodies, but the EU first and foremost. It is like bilateral talks as you can prey on national interests in two-way talks but can’t when any deal you suggest has to be approved by committee.
Tellingly the end of the phone call discussed security issues in the Baltics, where presumably Putin offered some trinkets to entice the Fins in particular; as IntelliNews reported, the Finnish economy has been cut to tatters by the bust up with Russia – worse even than the damage done to Germany.
Was the call progress? Call me cynical (with a lot of justification) but all I saw was more political kabuki. The Nords have nothing to offer. The Kremlin has a chance to show “we are not the problem” – a game that both Putin and Zelenskiy are playing at the moment – and nothing was agreed. Stubb and Store are not even the right people. It should have been von der Leyen and/or Kallas on that call and they have been ruled out from the start.
Like I said before this round of talks are “highly likely,” as the West loves to say, doomed to failure.
***
Here’s a different take:
Is Europe starting to come to its senses on Ukraine?
By Matthew Blackburn, Responsible Statecraft, 10/27/26
The Trump administration’s latest initiative to end the war is creating heartburn in Europe.
“We have to pressure the aggressor to stop the war, not the victim to surrender,” said European Union High Representative Kaja Kallas. “Squeezing Ukraine is not the right approach, and that’s why Europe is standing by Ukraine.” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, meanwhile, insists Russia has no genuine desire for peace, pointing in particular to Russian strikes on Ukrainian civilians.
This moral language frames the conflict as a zero-sum, good-versus-evil struggle. In this light, Europeans have no choice but to unite behind Ukraine to stop Russian President Vladimir Putin.
But not all European leaders are talking this way. The press conference in Oslo on Oct. 20 featuring Zelenskyy, Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre and Finnish President Alexander Stubb was full of constructive language about ending the conflict. Stubb said the Oslo summit was the result of “substantive progress” made “under the radar.” Støre emphasised that “Europe has to be at the table” to secure a “lasting peace.” Europe, it seems, is not united on a negotiated end to the conflict.
Then on Tuesday, the two held a call with Putin unofficially, in an effort at de-escalation, according to reports. “We are neighboring countries to Russia,” Stubb said in a statement afterwards. “The outcome of this war will have a direct impact on our and the broader European security. Ending the war requires direct discussions.”
The Oslo summit was no bolt from the blue; Finnish and Norwegian representatives have been preparing the ground for several months. At last week’s Warsaw Security Forum, Norwegian Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide avoided the usual binary of Ukraine’s victory or capitulation. He stressed that since the Europeans are now paying for the war, they should also lead the diplomacy to end it. Eide noted that a peace agreement could secure a democratic, independent Ukraine integrated into the EU with 80% of its original territory. Advancing this point among more hawkish European colleagues, Eide struck a tone of hope rather than fear. In an interview last Saturday, Eide noted that Europe must contribute concrete proposals for a post-war security architecture: “in the long run, we need to return to a normal relationship with Russia after the war (….) some kind of order must be restored.”
During his recent visit to the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs, Stubb presented a complementary argument. Restating his case for a “value-based realism,” he argued that European states should be faithful to their values but would not resolve the conflict by rigidly clinging to the moral high ground. Stubb urged the audience to keep “cooler heads”; fostering a “war mentality” would make it near impossible to conceive of peace.
Eide and Stubb are moving in a different direction from those who claim “victory” over Russia – however defined – is a prerequisite for future European security. They reject the mantra of ex-NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg that “weapons are the way to peace” and emphasize the military reality that neither side has the resources to win decisively.
This is a noble recognition of reality. Offensive actions from both sides have repeatedly failed to produce a breakthrough. Costs keep rising for both warring parties, while gains have become increasingly meagre. Europe, Ukraine, and Russia are stuck in a war that cannot be won on the terms set by either side.
Continuing the current course brings problems for all sides. Putin faces an overheating economy and increasing social fatigue and anxiety. Even if Russia destroys more and more Ukrainian infrastructure from the air, land offensives are likely to incur heavy losses. Ukraine’s situation is even tougher. Its chronic manpower shortages have led to intensified forced mobilization and increased social strains. Blockaded at sea and bombarded from the air, Ukraine is also short of money and weapons, constantly appealing to Western allies to plug the gaps.
The European coalition behind Ukraine faces serious problems of its own. Many European states are facing a sovereign debt crisis as war costs mount. The EU has been unable to persuade Belgium to make use of Russia’s frozen assets to fund the war. All the while, the dirty reality is that, since the war began, Europe has spent more on Russian energy imports than on weapons for Ukraine.
At the same time, Ukraine’s campaign of intensified deep strikes on Russia – supported by the Europeans and greenlit by the Trump Administration in spring 2026 – has failed to pressure Putin into a ceasefire. Without U.S. intelligence and weapons supplies, Europe lacks the military leverage to continue this effort on its own. There is no viable European war plan, only reactive crisis management and ad hoc solutions about Ukraine, coupled with repeated hyping of Russia’s “hybrid war” threat.
Tuesday’s meeting in Oslo provides a way out of this mess. As Stubb said at Tuesday’s press conference: “Peace requires patience. But unfortunately, war does not wait. People are dying each and every day. Our job is to do what we can to end it.” Norway and Finland are communicating the urgency of ending a senseless war. Referring to the recent spat between Trump and Zelensky, Støre advised against dwelling on past disagreements: “What matters now is what lies ahead of us.”
On the same day, Kaja Kallas looked back in anger. She accused the Trump administration of trying to “push Ukraine into surrender” on “Putin’s terms.” Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, for her part, presented Ukraine as Europe’s only protection: “If we allow Ukraine to fall, we will open the way for Russia to advance into other parts of Europe.”
One can understand fears that, if Ukraine is rendered neutral with limits on its armed forces, Russia would hold the whip hand over Europe. Nobody wants to let Moscow dictate the terms of the European security architecture through violence. But at this point, Europe’s rejection of a “dirty deal” could mean impotently watching Ukraine’s destruction over the next six months. How would this outcome improve European security or prestige?
Norway and Finland have offered the most constructive European response to U.S. diplomacy since Trump returned to the White House. They offer Europe a new language of patient diplomacy to replace maximalist rhetoric. This is in line with both countries’ previous experience mediating and building bridges with Russia. It also recognizes a basic fact: all protracted wars not settled decisively on the battlefield — which is to say, the vast majority of wars — end in negotiated settlements between the aggressor and the defender. America’s signature is absolutely necessary to secure such an outcome.
Mainstream analysis seems unable to accept these realities. It is stuck in moral posturing or fearmongering. There is still little serious discussion of what compromises might be struck. The 28-point plan that U.S.-Russian diplomacy developed in 2025 should not be equated with Ukraine’s capitulation, nor is it a recipe for turning Ukraine into Belarus. Ukraine would enter the EU, receive reconstruction assistance, and retain armed forces on a level comparable to Finland’s. It is time to return to the core points on which a deal must be struck.
Russia has responded positively to the proposals sent from Oslo. Ukraine, Russia, and the U.S. have agreed to a three-way summit in November, according to Zelensky. The key question now is whether other European governments will take the Oslo initiative seriously and agree on who can represent Europe in these talks. Dmitri Peskov, Putin’s press secretary, has cautiously welcomed the idea that Alexander Stubb could represent Europe in the negotiations.
Finland and Norway’s more moderate language is a crucial first step toward a shared European understanding that continuing the war in its current form is self-defeating. As Eide observed at the U.N. last month, “diplomacy can work – if we allow it to.”
But first, Europe must decide: will it support or sabotage the U.S. effort to build a diplomatic off-ramp?