Sputnik, 5/14/23

Over 100 senior Western defense and foreign policy officials and experts gathered in Tallinn, Estonia May 12-14 to discuss the crisis in Ukraine. Giving Sputnik an exclusive inside look at the event, academic Joseph Siracusa said that with few exceptions, decision makers expressed support for a further dangerous escalation of tensions with Russia.

The Lennart Meri Conference in Tallinn wrapped up Sunday after three days of discussions on NATO-Russia proxy war in Ukraine, maritime security, cyber threats, the push to continue the expansion of NATO and the EU, sanctions, and the threat of a nuclear war.

The conference featured multiple big names, including US European Command and NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe Christopher Cavoli, David Cattler, NATO’s assistant secretary general for intelligence and security, former US Deputy Secretary of State Stephen Biegun, European Council on Foreign Relations Co-Chairman Carl Bildt, former US Ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul, French presidential advisor Xavier Chatel, and the prime ministers of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. A keynote lecture was provided by former US National Security Council director and presidential advisor Fiona Hill, a prominent Russia hawk in the Trump administration.

The event was also attended by Dr. Joseph M. Siracusa, a renowned US professor of history and international diplomacy who serves as dean of Global Futures at Curtin University, and is the author of more than 30 books on diplomacy and international security. Dr. Siracusa provided Sputnik with detailed impressions on the event, saying that from his vantage point, it consisted mostly of “hardline anti-Russian types” not in the mood for any sort of dialogue with Moscow or any desire to put a stop to the bleeding wound that is modern-day Ukraine.

“I was hoping that when I came here, there would be a number of sessions on how peace might be achieved – that is, how a ceasefire might be achieved and what can be done about it,” the scholar said.

Unfortunately, the academic, who spoke at the conference’s session on nuclear risks, said the event proved unforgivingly and unrelentingly anti-Russia, with most speakers operating under a “Ukraine can do no bad, Russia can do no good,” “Russia is…the total aggressor” principle, and “pouring gasoline” on the conflict by cheerleading its continuation and calling for an expansion of the US military footprint in Eastern Europe.

“They have intellectuals here from Oxford University, [Professor of European Studies] Timothy Ash, who is for retribution. He said that Russia must be defeated, Putin must be taken down, and the Russian nation should be subjected to the same kind of treatment as Nazi Germany after World War Two ‘so that it could never conduct aggression again,’” Siracusa said. “No one is interested in dialogue with Russia. No one is interested in a peaceful solution…They all endorse Zelensky’s 10-point ‘peace program,’ which includes the removal of Russian troops from Crimea and the Donbass. And of course, that is just a fantasy, that’s never going to happen.”

“If they adhere to Zelensky’s ceasefire, the war in Ukraine will go on for years,” the scholar warned. Even if the conflict continues for just six more months, that’s going to mean thousands more dead, the academic said. “I regard the loss of Russian lives as equal to the loss of Ukrainian lives. When you start losing lives over something that could have been solved diplomatically, what we have here is criminal negligence,” he added.

Drang nach Osten 2.0?

“There are very few people here who are looking to the future. They have entire sessions on expanding NATO. They see the next expansion of NATO to include Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine, and they believe that it’s very necessary. And as I say, no one’s looking for the way out of this,” Siracusa said.

The academic agreed with Sputnik’s assessment of the Tallinn conference being a kind of preview of the upcoming NATO Summit in Vilnius, Lithuania scheduled for July, and said that unfortunately, there is “unanimity” of support for the alliance’s expansion, “of bringing in more American troops in this part of the world,” and for bringing Ukraine in as a formal member after years of de facto, “invisible member” status.

The alliance’s attitude is very dangerous, Siracusa said, since the conflict in Ukraine started in the first place “because of the failure of the United States and the Russian Federation to have a serious discussion about the expansion of NATO.”

“I think it was a failure in diplomacy which caused the crisis. It’s a failure in diplomacy that’s prolonging the crisis. And nobody’s really looking for a way out here. They see Ukrainian victory as very important and inevitable. Now, that’s not going to happen. So they have sort of an unrealistic expectation about what Ukraine could do,” the academic believes.

Pointing to “delusional” notions expressed at the Tallinn conference about Kiev being “on the cusp of victory,” Siracusa warned that Kiev today is not in such a position, and that the only thing a continuation of the conflict will do is result in more death and destruction.

“Zelensky’s policy – and I regard him as a failed politician – the idea that they’re ‘holding out for a victory’ just means more deaths both on the Ukrainian side and on the Russian side. And I decry all these people who are dying for things that could have been solved last year [through diplomacy, ed.]. It seems to me that this is a profound, unnecessary waste of lives. I do not like the idea that people are more interested in further conflict than in resolving the problem. They live in a world of make-believe. They don’t know when it’s going to end or how it’s going to end. But what they’re dreaming about is a Russian defeat and a regime change and crushing rearrangement of Russian society,” the scholar said.

Conflict Rooted in Anachronism

Siracusa, a veteran historian who has studied the Cold War of the 20th century extensively, says the Ukraine crisis is tragic and nonsensical because the US failed to learn the lessons of the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962 – a textbook case of how a conflict between nuclear superpowers can be resolved without going to war.

“The Cuban Missile Crisis was resolved by President John F. Kennedy and General Secretary [Nikita] Khrushchev. Khrushchev decided to withdraw the missiles and the United States pledged not to invade Cuba. My argument to these people is that President Biden never had an important discussion with President Putin before these hostilities began,” he said. “This war could have been avoided if Joe Biden had told [the Russian] president that NATO was not going into Ukraine, that there would be no advanced weapons systems on [Russia’s] borders,” Siracusa said.

From the academic’s perspective, the tensions between Washington and Moscow over NATO are tensions over an anachronism, because the alliance should have dissolved after the Cold War ended and the USSR and the Warsaw Pact alliance disappeared as potential threats to the West.

Siracusa was also struck by the willful ignorance of conference attendees regarding the Russia-Ukraine crisis and Russia’s role in the history of Eastern Europe in general.

“I would like to point out to these people that one of [the] greatest [Soviet] general secretaries, Leonid Brezhnev, was Ukrainian. It’s not as if these people discovered what it means to be in the Russian orbit. I believe that Russia has a right to friendly borders, because it is a large power and is entitled to neutrality on its borders, the same way the United States insists that Mexico and Canada have no major relationships with China or Russia today,” the academic said.

Russia and Ukraine have a shared heritage, Siracusa stressed, “but these people act like Russia came, you know, came from the dark side of the Moon. Like there’s no connection between Eastern Europe, Ukraine and Russia, when in fact, you’re all part of a shared history.”

The academic laments that Western policymakers and experts have made almost no attempt “to understand the motivation or the psychology of the Russian side of this conflict,” with Washington’s regional allies more concerned about the 2024 presidential elections and hoping that “America is going to come to the rescue.”

Siracusa could recall only one panel member at the Tallinn conference, President Emmanuel Macron’s military advisor Xavier Chatel, who seemed to share any recognition that Russia’s security interests should be taken into consideration. Chatel “thinks that Russia should not be humiliated, it should be invited back into Europe, etc. But he was kind of the odd man out. I think France is trying to take an equal view of what’s going on. But he is kind of an outsider here,” the scholar said.

Orwellian Language

Another detail of the conference that Siracusa found interesting was the use of the term “proxy war” in reference to the Ukrainian crisis – a term used extensively by Russian officials, including Putin and Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, and increasingly by some Western media. The term was used in Tallinn, but its meaning flipped on its head, according to the observer.

“What they[have said] here, what their lead speakers [have said] here is that Putin is using the war in Ukraine as a proxy war against NATO – that the war in Ukraine is designed to reshuffle the architecture of Europe and to drive a wedge between the Americans and the Europeans. So they turned the proxy war from the American proxy war in Russia to the Russian proxy war against Ukraine. This takes a great deal of imagination. And it’s also dead wrong,” Siracusa said.

Nuclear Bombshell

The most significant thing that stood out to Siracusa at the event in Tallinn was the casual way in which the potential use of nuclear weapons was discussed. In one of the talks, featuring Chatham House Rules (which prevent Siracusa from explicitly naming or identifying the speaker), a senior former US official was asked how the US might respond if Russia used a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine.

“He said, and I think he didn’t mean to say this, [that] ‘the American response, which has been delivered to Russia through back channels, is that there would be a major conventional attack on Crimea and the Russian Fleet,” Siracusa said.

“That would be to me not only a major escalation, but it would be one that cannot be called back. It would create far more problems and prepare the road to World War III,” Siracusa summed up.

By Kylie Atwood & Michael Chance, CNN, 5/11/23

The Biden administration is scouring the globe for offers that could entice Russia to release two wrongfully detained Americans, Evan Gershkovich and Paul Whelan, according to three sources familiar with the matter.

The US does not currently have any high-level Russian spies in its custody, current and former US officials say, driving the need to turn to allies for help.

The Biden administration is casting a wide net, approaching allied countries who have Russian spies in custody to gauge whether they would be willing to make a trade as part of a larger prisoner swap package. But US officials have also been surveying allies without Russians in their custody, officials said, for ideas on what might entice Moscow to release US prisoners.

The White House is also exploring narrow sanctions relief, senior administration officials said.

The goal is to bring home Whelan and Gershkovich as part of the same deal, US officials have said privately, with two US officials telling CNN the administration wants to see what creative offers could gin up Russian interest.

US officials’ outreach extends to some countries that have recently arrested alleged Russian spies, including Brazil, Norway and Germany, as well as a former Soviet bloc country, to discuss the possibility of including them in any potential prisoner swaps. Germany has in its custody a former colonel from Russia’s domestic spy agency named Vadim Krasikov, who is widely seen as being atop Russia’s list of prisoners it wants back.

While some of these efforts predate Gershkovich’s detention, they have continued to intensify since The Wall Street Journal reporter was arrested in March, with White House officials directly engaged on the matter, officials said.

“Efforts to reach out to allies and partners have been intense for many months and intensified even further once it became clear that there was no way to bring Whelan home at the same time as Brittney Griner, given Russian refusal to release Whelan,” said a senior administration official. “That recognition led the US government to redouble efforts with new creativity to find a way to bring Whelan home, too.”

‘A like for a like’

In March, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that the US had put forward a “serious proposal” to secure Whelan but that Russia had not engaged on it.

Last April, the Biden administration secured the release of American Trevor Reed, who’d been detained in Russia since 2019, in exchange for convicted Russian drug smuggler Konstantin Yaroshenko.

In December, when Russia agreed to release American basketball star Griner in exchange for the infamous arms trafficker Viktor Bout, it refused to release Whelan, who’s been wrongfully detained in Russia since his 2018 arrest on espionage charges. Releasing Bout was viewed as a major move for the US, though it was not enough to prompt Whelan’s release.

Unlike Griner and Reed, Russia is treating both Whelan and Gershkovich as spies. Over the course of years of conversations Russian officials have indicated that in return for Whelan, they expect someone who is connected to Russia’s intelligence apparatus, current and former US officials said. And US officials expect Russia is likely to make similar demands for Gershkovich.

While the US has multiple Russian cyber criminals in custody, Russia will not entertain them as part of a deal for Americans charged with espionage, according to current and former US officials involved in past proposals put on the table with Russia.

“Russia wouldn’t trade cyber criminals for Reed or Griner, and they are definitely not going to accept them in a trade for an American who has been convicted of espionage or an American who’s been charged with espionage,” said a former senior administration official involved in previous prisoner swaps between Russia and the US. “Russia treats espionage as a different crime, as something much more serious than anything else and they have made clear that they expect something more significant in return. They want a like for a like.”

‘Special channels’

As US officials work with allies to come up with potential tradeable assets, a person with knowledge of the discussions told CNN that an exhaustive list of who may be swapped has not yet been finalized, adding that there is “fierce competition for who gets into the package.” The source spoke with CNN on the condition of anonymity as they are not authorized to speak about the details of discussions.

Russian officials confirmed to CNN that “special channels” are active between the US and Russia, but refused to specify who they want as part of an exchange. Gershkovich and Whelan are the only two Americans who have been publicly declared as wrongfully detained in Russia.

The source told CNN that Moscow is “most interested” in the extradition of Krasikov, the former Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) colonel jailed in Germany for the assassination in a Berlin park of a Georgian citizen in 2019.

It is unclear under what conditions – if any – Germany would agree to participate in a swap involving Krasikov in exchange for US citizens. Russian government officials requested the former colonel from the country’s domestic spy agency be included in a prisoner swap last year, CNN reported. US officials did make quiet inquiries to the Germans about whether they might be willing to include Krasikov in the trade, a senior German government source told CNN last year.

Last month, the Russian foreign minister told CNN there are “about 60” Russian citizens in US jails “many abducted under dubious circumstances,” indicating Moscow may want some, or all, or them returned as part of any deal.

A State Department spokesperson declined to offer specific details on the negotiation process involved with securing the release of Gershkovich or Whelan, telling CNN, “We regularly engage partners around the world to discuss wrongful detention cases and in some cases to seek assistance in effecting a release. We continue to work aggressively – using every available means – to bring home all US nationals wrongfully detained or held hostage abroad. Russia should release Evan Gershkovich and Paul Whelan immediately.”

Russian spies in custody

On top of Krasikov, a number of other suspected Russian spies have recently been arrested by US allied countries.

Late last year Norway arrested a suspected Russian spy posing as an academic who was in the country after spending years studying in Canada, according to Norway’s domestic security agency.

A similar case arose with a Russian spy in Brazil late last year. Sergey Cherkasov, who attended the prestigious Johns Hopkins’ School of Advanced International Studies, the elite foreign policy school at John Hopkins in Washington DC. After posing as a student from Brazil, Cherkasov was arrested for identity fraud last fall. The DOJ accused Cherkasov of working for Russia’s military intelligence service, and asked Brazil to extradite him last month.

Estonia also arrested a Russian national last year who the Justice Department believes is an officer for the FSB. Vadim Konoshchenok allegedly attempted to send thousands of US-made bullets, semiconductors and other electronic components into Russia. The US has requested Konoshchenok’s extradition, though it is unclear if there are simultaneous conversations about including him in any possible prisoner swap.

When the US requests a Russian criminal to be extradited it doesn’t necessarily mean they would be involved in any swap, but it does prompt conversations between the two countries on the prisoner which could give US intelligence officials top cover engage the country on the matter, one US official said.

Other countries have also arrested alleged Russian spies recently, including Poland, Sweden and Slovenia.

Other options

US officials cautioned that it could take time for ideas to come together, especially possibilities considered more “think outside the box,” said one US official.

But identifying Russian spies in the custody of US allies remains central to the efforts underway because the US knows that Russia puts a high value on their intelligence operations.

It is the long-held position of DOJ to oppose prisoner swaps. Many Justice officials believe swaps incentivize the detention of Americans and undermine the effort to extradite foreign criminals so they can be convicted of crimes in the US.

Another tool that the US has at its disposal is dangling sanctions relief for Russian groups accused of being involved in taking Americans hostage. Russia’s Federal Security Service was sanctioned last month after being repeatedly been involved in the arrest, investigation, and detention of US nationals wrongfully detained in Russia, the State Department said.

When those sanctions were put into place administration officials said it was possible to lift them if Americans held in Russia were released. But current and former officials recognize that rolling back those sanctions alone – particularly because the FSB is already sanctioned under other authorities – won’t suffice.

“The Russians are so widely sanctioned already, so sanctions relief is unlikely to move the Russians,” said a second former US official.

By Connor Freeman & Will Porter, The Libertarian Institute, 5/10/23

President Vladimir Putin declared that all of Russia is united in support of its troops, claiming they face a “real war” intended to “destroy” their country during his annual Victory Day speech in Moscow’s Red Square on Tuesday.

Celebrated on May 9 in Russia, Victory Day is the country’s yearly commemoration to honor the Soviet troops who defeated the forces of Nazi Germany during World War II. The ceremonies and military parade were notably pared back relative to previous years, however, as Russia’s war in Ukraine grinds into its fifteenth month.

“Today, our civilization is at a crucial turning point. A real war is being waged against our country again but we have countered international terrorism and will defend the people of Donbass and safeguard our security,” Putin said.

The Russian leader declaimed that Moscow seeks peace and stability, while railing against American exceptionalism and the “Western globalist elites.” He said these forces pit countries against one another with coup plots and proxy conflicts, such as the 2014 US-backed coup in Kiev and Ukraine’s subsequent war on Russian-speaking separatists in the eastern Donbass region. These actions preceded Putin’s invasion, and the president has repeatedly cited the need to “defend the people” of the Donbass as a justification for his “special military operation.”

“For us, for Russia, there are no unfriendly or hostile nations either in the west or in the east. Just like the vast majority of people on the planet, we want to see a peaceful, free and stable future,” Putin claimed.

“[Russians] believe that any ideology of superiority is abhorrent, criminal and deadly by its nature. However, the Western globalist elites keep speaking about their exceptionalism, pit nations against each other and split societies, provoke bloody conflicts and coups, sow hatred, Russophobia, aggressive nationalism, destroy family and traditional values which make us human,” he continued. “They do all that so as to keep dictating and imposing their will, their rights and rules on peoples, which in reality is a system of plundering, violence and suppression.”

The Russian leader went on to claim that the war in Ukraine is a defensive action against a collective West which seeks to subvert and balkanize Russia, ultimately hoping to wipe the country off the map. “Their goal – and there is nothing new about it – is to break apart and destroy our country, to make null and void the outcomes of World War II, to completely break down the system of global security and international law, to choke off any sovereign centers of development,” he said.

Putin blamed the same forces for provoking the disaster in Ukraine and NATO’s ongoing proxy war against Russia, pointing to the massive casualties resulting from callous and “self-serving” Western policies. “Boundless ambition, arrogance and impunity inevitably lead to tragedies. This is the reason for the catastrophe the Ukrainian people are going through. They have become hostage to the coup d’état and the resulting criminal regime of its Western masters, collateral damage in the implementation of their cruel and self-serving plans,” he asserted.

Putin also hailed the emergence of the new “multipolar world,” saying that an “unstoppable movement is gaining momentum” towards “a world based on the principles of trust and indivisible security, of equal opportunities for a genuine and free development of all nations and peoples.”

He praised the Russian forces fighting in Ukraine as “heroes,” saying they are up against a West which has “forgotten what the Nazis’ insane claims of global dominance led to. They forgot who destroyed that monstrous, total evil, who stood up for their native land and did not spare their lives to liberate the peoples of Europe.”

Tuesday’s Victory Day ceremony and military parade were significantly smaller compared to previous years, likely due to concerns over a recent uptick in drone strikes on Russian territory – including one which targeted the Kremlin last week. Moscow claimed the strike was a failed assassination attempt against Putin, pinning blame on Ukraine. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov also accused the United States of involvement in the attack, saying “[Russia knows] very well that the decisions to carry out such actions, such terrorist attacks, are made not in Kiev. Rather, it is precisely in Washington.”

While some attendees complained about the scaled-down ceremony – namely the lack of tanks – the Kremlin said the parade’s motorized column was headed up by the WW2-era “legendary ‘Victory tank’ T-34–85” and featured a wide array of military hardware. That included Tigr-M and BTR-82A armored personnel carriers, Bumerang fighting vehicles, Iskander-M tactical missile systems, S-400 air defense platforms and Yars mobile missile systems, according to the Kremlin. It added that “The newest Spartak and 3-STS Akhmat armored vehicles were presented at the parade for the first time.”

The marching column consisted of 30 ceremonial regiments with more than 8,000 troops, including 530 personnel taking part in Russia’s so-called “special military operation.” According to the AP, this is the lowest such turnout since 2008. There was reportedly no fly-over of military jets and the ceremony lasted less than one hour.

Several cities also scrapped their traditional ‘Immortal Regiment’ processions, in which crowds hold up pictures of relatives who fought or died during the war against Nazi Germany. The Soviet Union lost 27 million people in the conflict, giving Victory Day deep symbolic meaning in Russia. According to local media reports, 24 different cities also canceled plans for their own military parades. Regional officials cited by the AP blamed “security concerns” and the “current situation” as the reason for the cancellations.

Alongside Putin on the stand during his speech were the President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko, Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan, President of Kyrgyzstan Sadyr Japarov, President of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, President of Turkmenistan Serdar Berdimuhamedov, President of Tajikistan Emomali Rahmon, and the President of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev.

Read full transcript of Putin’s speech here.

Link here.

This is a talk that former UN weapons inspector Scott Ritter gave to an overflow audience in St. Petersburg, Russia on May 5th. His talk was about his latest book, Disarmament in the Time of Perestroika: Arms Control and the End of the Soviet Union.

https://vimeo.com/532331716

Link here.

“We link to Peter Watkins’ award-winning 1966 film The War Game, a docudrama about the impact of a hypothetical nuclear war. The parallels with today are chilling. The film won the Academy Award for Best Documentary (Feature) and the BAFTA Award for Best Short Film.” – American Committee for US-Russia Accord (ACURA)