By Sylvia Demarest, Substack, 6/15/25

Sylvia Demarest is a retired trial lawyer and a writer.

Introduction:

The current war should not be seen as solely an Israeli operation. This war was in the planning stage well before Trump was elected. It has the full support of the US military-industrial-intelligence complex, the corporate media, and the entire political class-both Republican and Democrat. It would have happened even if Kamala Harris had been elected president. Trump was elected on a promise to end these wars. He either lied to the American people or has been overpowered by an alliance of money and power. In any case, he failed, and Israel has initiated this war. The NATO alliance is also on board along with the intelligence agencies of all the aligned countries. The one group that does not support this war is the public, including the American people, but the people have no voice.

Over the last several years Iran’s system of deterrence was gradually degraded. Syria fell to Islamic extremists, Israel systematically destroyed Syria’s weapons, the pager operation did serious damage to Hezbollah, Nasrallah was assassinated, Beirut was bombed, parts of Lebanon and Syria were occupied, and Israel emerged, seemingly predominate.

The one remaining obstacle to Israeli hegemony was Iran. Operation Rising Lion was not initiated to destroy Iran’s nuclear capability; Israel does not have the capacity to do that. The operation was launched to cause a total state collapse in Iran. The goal was to fracture Iran so the country could easily be dominated and conquered.

This seems to have been the plan. The first phase involved the elimination of the top military and IRGC leaders, and nuclear scientists, while unleashing havoc on the public–this phase is complete. Because Iran had not retaliated against previous provocations, it was believed that this operation would not result in significant Iranian retaliation. If Iran had not retaliated, the next phase would target and assassinate the top political leadership. Next, proxy forces would be unleashed, paid and armed by the CIA and Mossad to kill Iranians and cause a civil war. Iran would be defanged and balkanized, ethnic divisions would be stirred up, proxies forces would be organized and funded by the Gulf states, Mossad, and the CIA. Proxy death squads would roam Iran, causing death and mass destruction–just like what happened in Libya and Syria.

But Iran retaliated. The fog of war is thick, and information has been tightly controlled, but Israel appears to be getting pounded by round after round of Iranian missiles. If this continues, it will exhaust Israel’s ability to defend against these missiles. Israeli defense and infrastructure will be destroyed. Instead of initiating a civil war, even the moderate Iranians who hated the Mullah’s, are now shouting “death to Israel.” Israel has panicked. This is an increasingly dangerous situation. We should be on guard for a “false flag” operation designed to implicate Iran and force the US and NATO to formally enter this war on Israel’s behalf. Iran’s response must be finely balanced. Israel must be severely punished, but not so severely as to force a nuclear response.

There are unverified reports that Pakistan and North Korea, two states with nuclear weapons, have threatened to respond should Israel attack Iran with nuclear weapons. Also, a 3^rd cargo plane from China has landed in Iran. China gets oil from Iran and may have delivered anti-aircraft systems. Finally, John Mearsheimer says that the only way for Iran to protect herself from attack is to immediately get a nuclear weapon. Many other countries may feel compelled to do the same. This is a dangerous mess. Brought to the world by militarism, Zionism, out of control Jewish Nationalist Supremacy, and its fellow travelers in the US, and NATO.

What happened to Iran in phase 1

After 25 years of open hostility towards Iran, the United States, via the Trump Administration, gave Israel the green light to conduct an illegal decapitation strike against Iran. In an attack on Friday the 13^th, which closely resembled Ukrainian Operation Spider Web’s attempt to destroy Russia’s strategic bombers, Israel conducted a sneak attack and regime change operation against Iran called “Operation Rising Lion”. As with Operation Spider Web, preparations for the operation began during the Biden Administration. As with the Ukrainian operation, Operation Rising Lion used drones smuggled into Iran (or assembled at a secret drone base) to assassinate over two dozen Iranian military leaders and nuclear scientists. The drones, apparently operated by Israeli commando’s, or local assets, assassinated military leaders and scientists either as they met in an underground bunker, or as they slept in their apartments, along with their families and children. Israel also used a cyber-attack to “permanently disable” Iran’s aircraft defenses–but Iran fixed and rebooted the system within 10 hours. It was believed that operation Rising Lion would result in an uprising by the Iranian people and the overthrow the Iranian government. This has not happened so far. It was also believed that the Iranian government would not, or could not, retaliate against Israel. This proved to be incorrect.

Every US president is a puppet for the national security state and Donald J. Trump has proven to be no exception.

After the unbridled warmongering militarism of the Biden Administration, Trump’s promises of peace presented a welcomed change. But Trump’s words were just a façade. Like every other President, Trump caved to Zionist money and deep state power. The American people voted for peace, and, yet again, got war instead.

This video is probably a deep fake–but I like the message. Vladimir Putin doesn’t mince words. “No US president truly holds power. And now, even Donald Trump, once the loudmouth promising peace, shows his true colors by backing attacks on Iran. Just another puppet controlled by the Deep State, serving the machine while pretending to lead.”

The attacks on Russia and on Iran appear to have been coordinated.

On June 1^st Ukraine attacked Russian strategic bombers. On June 13^th Israel attacked Iran.“There is evidence of coordination between the attack on Iran and the attacks on Russia. Israeli strikes killed Mohammad Bagheri, the chief of the Iranian army’s general staff; Hossein Salami, commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps; and David Sheikhian, commander of the IRGC’s air defense. Many other senior military leaders were also killed. This situation is analogous to the terrorist attacks by SBU agents against Russian army commanders. On December 17, 2024, Ukrainian terrorists assassinated Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov, the head of the Radiation, Chemical, and Biological Defense Forces.”

“Among the prominent Iranian scientists killed today were Dr. Mohammad Mehdi Tehranchi, Dr. Ahmad Reza Zolfaghari, Dr. Abdolhamid Minuchehr, Dr. Amir Hosein Fekhi, and Dr. Fereydoun Abbasi. Ukrainian intelligence has engaged in the similar assassination of Russian scientists and engineers. Since 2022, Daniil Mikheev, a coordinator of new unmanned systems for the Ministry of Defense; Konstantin Ogarkov, an employee of a defense research institute in Voronezh; and Igor Kolesnikov, an engineer at a design bureau in the Tula region, have been killed.”

“Sergei Potapov, a cybersecurity specialist in defense from Nizhny Novgorod, was killed. Valery Smirnov, one of the leaders of programs for the radio-electronic protection of strategic facilities, was assassinated. In January 2024, Ukrainian saboteurs blew up a car carrying officers from the electronic intelligence headquarters in the Bryansk region. On the night of April 17-18, 2025, Evgeny Rytnikov, the head of the design bureau of the Bryansk Electromechanical Plant, the developer of the electronic warfare complexes series “Krasukha,” died.”

Iran was bombed on the 61^st day after the start of “negotiations” –just as Trump’s “ultimatum” implied–despite ongoing negotiations.

President Trump’s statements after the fact can be seen as an admission of his own level of complicity in the attacks.

“Two months ago, I gave Iran a 60-day ultimatum to “make a deal.” They should have done it! Today (June 13^th) is day 61. I told them what to do, but they just couldn’t get there. Now they have, perhaps, a second chance!”

Yet the American people and the Iranians were led to believe that Iran’s nuclear program was still being “negotiated”?

Meanwhile, the US was quick with the denials–but as they say–“thou doth protest too much”? U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio quickly issued this statement: “Tonight, Israel took unilateral action against Iran,” Rubio said in a statement. “We are not involved in strikes against Iran and our top priority is protecting American forces in the region. Israel advised us that they believe this action was necessary for its self-defense.” He also cautioned: “do not attack US forces.”

How big is Iran and Israel? Look at the difference in size and population, do you really think Israel would act without US approval and the expectation of US support?

How big is Iran? Iran is 2.4 times larger than the state of Texas. Iran spans 636,372 square miles. Iran has a population of 90 million people. Iran is very mountainous. Iranians are also highly educated, and Iran produces exceptional engineers. Iran has weapons the US has not been able to develop–such as hypersonic missiles. There are several videos showing hypersonic missiles hitting Israel.

How big is Israel? Israel is approximately the size of the Dallas/Ft Worth area of Texas. Israel consists of 8,019 square miles. Israel has a population of approximately 9.5 million people. Israel is relatively flat. If Iran decides to destroy Israel, Iran has the capacity to do so. Iran could also destroy every US base in the Middle East and shut the Straits of Hormuz. The idiocy and group think behind starting this war is unsurpassed. We are truly ruled by fools.

The set up for war with Iran

1–IAEA expresses concerns that Iran not fully cooperating. The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) warns that inspectors have been unable to determine whether Iran’s nuclear program was “exclusively peaceful” as per the terms of the 2015 nuclear deal from which the United States subsequently withdrew. This led to the passage of a resolution on the 12^th by the IAEA’s board of governors highlighting serious and growing concerns since at least 2019 that Iran had failed to cooperate fully with the UN agency’s inspectors. Iran claims she recently acquired evidence that the IAEA was providing Israel with the names of Iranian scientists. These scientists were then assassinated. Note: This is the same pretext used for the Iraq war.

2–Canada and the United Kingdom express concerns about Iran’s nuclear program. Again, setting up a pretext for war.

3–Negotiations are scheduled for Sunday June 15^th between the US and Iran.Negotiations have since been cancelled.

4–President Trump and Ambassador Huckabee deny that an attack is imminent US President Donald Trump said Thursday that an Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear sites “could very well happen” but advised against it, saying the possibility of a deal was “fairly close” if Tehran compromises on its atomic ambitions in ongoing talks with the US. US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee said in an interview yesterday that Israel was unlikely to attack Iran without a green light from Washington.

5–Americans have been told Iran wanted a nuclear weapon for 30 years. Americans have been told for 30 years that Iran was months or weeks away from having a nuclear weapon. Once Iran is bombed, based on this propaganda, most people will say-“oh Iran was weeks away from getting a nuke.”

6–Iran is the last of the 7 countries scheduled for regime change after 911. Former US General and NATO Commander Wesley Clark revealed the US empire made plans to overthrow the governments of 7 countries in 5 years: Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, Iran. Iran is the only country left to be destroyed. This is the cycle of war since 911. US blood and treasure has been used to destroy Israel’s enemies.

The Trump Administration held a meeting at Camp David on June 7^th to discuss Iran and Gaza. Tulsi Gabbard did not attend.

The meeting was disclosed to Axios by “two US officials and another source with knowledge.” Present was President Trump, Vice President Vance, Secretary of State Rubio, Secretary of Defense Hegseth, CIA Head Radcliff, Chief of Staff Wiles, and certain generals and admirals. Perhaps, “the boys” did not want to have to listen to a contrary voice?

Tulsi Gabbard recently visited Hiroshima and posted a video warning about the risk of a nuclear war.

The US and Israel worked together to deceive Iran and the American people.

If this is shown to be true, it means the American people were fed months of lies and propaganda about a “breach” between President Trump and Israeli PM Netanyahu. This includes press reports about why President Trump did not visit Israel during a recent trip to the Middle East. It now seems more probable that, rather than being estranged, US and Israel were cooperating on plans to bomb both Iran and Russia.

Recent reporting as well as statements by President Trump on Friday the 13^th, reveal that the US and Israel practiced deceptive diplomacy, as Israeli and American officials worked together to convince Iran that nuclear negotiations were progressing. Instead, an elaborate Israel attack on Iran was being planned. Tehran was given a false sense of security, and, as a result was ill-prepared for its defense.

The progression of events indicates that this was a closely coordinated operation and that the “peace talks” were used to give Israel the opportunity for maximum surprise to achieve maximum damage” to Iran.

Here’s what President Trump posted three hours before the Military Solution was unleashed: “We remain committed to a diplomatic solution to the Iran nuclear issue. My entire Administration has been directed to negotiate with Iran. They could be a great country but first they must give up hopes of obtaining a nuclear weapon.” “Disinformation” is a chronically overused term, but this fits the bill

In this operation, Israel also assassinated Ali Shamkhani, a key negotiator in the US-Iran nuclear talks and who was a top aide to Supreme Leader Khamenei.

Here’s what the president said after the Israeli attack on Iran.

US President Donald Trump described Israel’s strikes on Iran as “excellent” on Friday and warned that there is “a lot more to come” unless Tehran agrees to a nuclear deal. He made the remarks in a phone call with ABC News chief Washington correspondent Jonathan Karl.

Though the US initially sought to distance itself from the attack, Trump has now told Iran: ‘There is still time to make this slaughter, with the next already planned attacks being even more brutal, come to an end.’

He said in a post to Truth Social: ‘I gave Iran chance after chance to make a deal. I told them, in the strongest of words, to ‘just do it,’ but no matter how hard they tried, no matter how close they got, they just couldn’t get it done.

‘I told them it would be much worse than anything they know, anticipated, or were told, that the United States makes the best and most lethal military equipment anywhere in the World, BY FAR, and that Israel has a lot of it, with much more to come – And they know how to use it.”

‘Certain Iranian hardliners spoke bravely, but they didn’t know what was about to happen. They are all DEAD now, and it will only get worse!”

It is likely that the US knew and approved of the strike–UK, France and Germany may have also been involved.

Axios has reported that Tel Aviv was given “a clear US green light” to start bombing, according to two unnamed Israeli officials. The previously widely reported ‘split’ and spat between Trump and Netanyahu was a public ruse. Two Israeli officials claimed to Axios that Trump and his aides were only pretending to oppose an Israeli attack in public — and didn’t express opposition in private. “We had a clear U.S. green light,” one claimed

It is difficult to believe that Israel would and could have attacked at this scale without US knowledge and green light–including de-conflicting with CENTCOM. Trump may have calculated this will soften Iran’s position, but just as he was wrong that maximum pressure will bring Iran to the table, he will be proven wrong that Israeli attack could give him a diplomatic win. He may end up getting the war that he and the MAGA base have said they don’t want.

Even the pizza indicator shows US was up to something as orders for pizza for the pentagon skyrocketed as the attack on Iran drew near.

Trump’s statements after the fact are an admission of his own level of complicity in the attacks.

This implies that a US president used official peace negotiations with a foreign country to convince both the leaders of that country, and the American people, that he was working for peace when in fact he was preparing for war. If this is true, this means the negotiations with Iran, and perhaps with Russia, were a ruse. Witkoff, like most of the Trump Administration, may have been acting as an agent of Israel and Netanyahu. This has serious implications for US security and calls for a complete re-examination of US policy towards Israel. There are now calls for the US to end our alliance with Israel.

Has “escalation dominance” now passed into the hands of the Iranians?

Iron Dome, THAD, and the rest appear to be a total bust. Despite efforts to control information, videos are showing hit after hit in Israel by Iran. The propaganda narrative of Iranian collapse is coming apart as Iran fires wave after wave of missiles at Israeli military assets. Iran now seems to be using mobile launchers, which Russia also has, to avoid detection. Iran is a huge country–good luck finding them. The US capacity to produce anti-aircraft and missile systems is limited. US can only manufacture 50-75 THAAD and 60-84 SM-3 interceptors per year!

Meanwhile, Iran’s True Promise 3.0 continues to target Israel’s military and energy infrastructure. Israel hit Iran’s energy infrastructure fist, including refineries, opening the door to retaliation. How much damage was done is unknown. Meanwhile, Iran responded to the Israeli attack with great force. Iran’s Fattah-1 hypersonic missiles, made quite a dazzling impact all over Tel Aviv and northern Israel. It is almost unreal to watch. Isreal’s oil refinery in Haifa was targeted. It produces 65% of Israel’s fuel needs. The Weizmann Institute for Science was targeted, along with many other important sites.

There are new reports that Israel is resorting to using car bombs against Iranian civilians. This may indicate that the drones Israel snuck in have been exhausted. Iran has been busy rounding up Israeli assets and closing Israeli infrastructure in Iran. The use of car bombs against Iranian civilians may result in Iran using EMAD missiles against military targets in Tel Aviv.

Here’s Simplicius: “Furthermore, it was also shown that most of Israel’s strike footage against Iranian ground assets turned out to be decoys, as none of the MRBMs were seen to ignite at all after massive ordnance landed on top of them. “

“Likewise, claims of ‘Israeli air superiority’ were a sloppy concoction stitched together from footage of low-flying IAI Heron drones briefly circling over Tehran for PR photos—likely before being shot down, as clips emerged of some ‘large aircraft’ Iran claimed were destroyed F-35s, but which were probably drones. Also, claims of Israeli ‘infiltration’ success and ‘secret bases’ appeared to be more exaggerated psyop fodder as it turned out Israelis were operating out of secret Azerbaijan bases, launching drones and various other objects at Iran from every direction.”

The assassinations, the cyber-attack, and the initial bombings have not damaged Iran’s nuclear capability. The hope that an initial Iranian over reaction would force the US to intervene has yet to occur–meanwhile, important Israeli assets are getting hit hard.

Who war gamed this war?

President Trump is now faced with a choice. So far, he still has a small shred of “deniability” about this and the Russian attack. If he relents and authorizes and attack on Iran, he will destroy what’s left of his presidency.

Here’s Simplicius again: “Now Trump stands poised on the knife’s edge of one of his most historically critical decisions–whether to betray the mandate of the American people and consign his second term and dwindling legacy to the trash heap of history, or to pull back on the strings of Miriam Adelson and other doners and show a spine in standing up for the real “America First” version he promised to all. As of this writing, there are reports of urgent meetings in the Pentagon surrounding precisely the issue of Israel’s request for the US to officially enter the war to “finish off Iran.””

As with most wars, lies and propaganda resulted in group think and created confirmation bias in the United States, NATO, and Israel, about Iran. This resulted a narrative that Iran was weak and would fall, leading to this sneak attack. Now operation Rising Lion is poised on the edge of failure. What will the US and NATO do in response? Our future may depend on the answer.

John F. Kennedy is credited with saying victory has a thousand fathers, but defeat is an orphan. Defeat has serious implications. Israel cannot survive a war of attrition. Israel will put everything on the line to force the United States military to intervene. The prospect for an Israel nuclear strike against Iran can also not be discounted.

People of good will should condemn assassinations, sneak attacks, and decapitation strikes. This is warmongering savagery. June 13^th could be Iran’s Pearl Harbor and Iran could react as the US did in 1942. Iran’s capacity should not be underrated.

The fog of war means we have very little confirmed information about this war.

Complete military censorship is now in effect in Israel, yet videos still are being posted. What is true and what is false about this war is unknown. Remember, we will see far more coverage of strikes in Iran than in Israel in our media.

It is no longer possible for Israeli jets to operate out of Israel; they are apparently operating out of a British military base in Cypress. How long can these jets, F-35’s that require a huge amount of maintenance, continue to operate? There are many more unknowns than knowns in this war. As with the proxy war against Russia, the west can help Israel but if Iran strikes anywhere outside of Isreal, it will open the door for other countries to join the war.

It is fair to say, we are now past the preliminary stages of World War 3.

The only hope is for ordinary people to put aside their differences and to unite against militarism, neoliberalism, and neoconservatism–in support serious financial and structural reforms. The alternative is a future of war, wealth concentration, poverty, destruction, and depravation.

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YouTube link here.

By Sergey Poletaev, RT, 6/13/25

Sergey Poletaev is an information analyst and publicist [journalist]. He specializes in Russian foreign policy and in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Born in 1980 in Moscow, Poletaev is a graduate of the Faculty of Journalism of Moscow State University. In 2017, together with researchers Oleg Makarov and Dmitry Stefanovich, he founded the information and analytical project Vatfor.

As the spring sun gave way to the heat of early summer, a new phase of the military campaign began to unfold across the front lines – and this time, the initiative clearly belongs to Russia.

After months of grinding attritional warfare, Russian forces have launched a sweeping spring-summer offensive that is already delivering tangible results. From the borderlands of Sumy to the contested hills near Chasov Yar and the approaches to Dnepropetrovsk, the tempo has shifted decisively. Ukraine, battered and overextended, is now struggling to contain simultaneous breakthroughs across multiple sectors.

The silence of Western media around these developments only underscores the magnitude of what is unfolding on the ground. A coordinated advance is in motion – methodical, strategic, and, by all appearances, effective.

Sumy direction: Establishing a buffer zone

Following the liberation of Sudzha in early March 2025, the fighting quickly spilled across the border into Ukraine’s Sumy Region. Moscow officially described its objective as the creation of a buffer zone – meant to safeguard the resumption of peaceful civilian life in Russia’s neighboring Kursk Region.

Motivated by political considerations, the Ukrainian Army has been trying to cling to a narrow foothold just across the border, in the village of Tyotkino in Kursk Region. In fact, Kiev has deployed some of its most experienced and ideologically committed units to this stretch of the front. But rather than showcasing Ukrainian resolve, the situation in Tyotkino has underscored the growing imbalance in offensive capabilities between Ukrainian and Russian forces in 2025.

© RT / Sergey Poletaev based on data from Lostarmor.Ru

From the Russian side, Tyotkino is essentially a logistical cul-de-sac. But for Ukraine, the village connects to a critical rear supply hub in Belopolye. Even so, Ukrainian efforts to expand their presence in the area have ended in near catastrophe. In mid-May, the commander of Ukraine’s 47th Brigade came close to staging a mutiny, accusing his superiors of issuing reckless orders that led to needless casualties.

Elsewhere along the Sumy front, Ukrainian forces – many of them retreating from Sumy and the surrounding areas – have taken heavy losses. This remains a strategically vital axis for Ukraine. The authorities have announced mandatory evacuations in another 11 settlements, bringing the total number of evacuated towns and villages in the region to 213.

Notably, this marks the first time Russian forces have entered Sumy Region since spring 2022.

As of now, Russian advances appear to be accelerating. The front line has moved to within roughly 20km of the city of Sumy itself.

Liman direction: Not a dead end

Liman (also known as Krasny Liman) is a strategic city in the Donetsk People’s Republic, with a pre-war population of around 20,000. Situated along the Kharkov-Donetsk railway, it serves as a key transportation hub in eastern Ukraine. After brief fighting, the city fell under Russian control in late May 2022 – but was later lost during Ukraine’s Kharkov offensive in October of the same year.

Today, Russian forces appear intent on retaking Liman by cutting off a single critical road that leads northwest toward Izium.

© RT / Sergey Poletaev based on data from Lostarmor.Ru

The current offensive seems focused precisely on this objective. On May 15, Russian troops secured the village of Torskoye, followed by the capture of Redkodub May 29-30. Both settlements are considered vital defensive outposts for the Ukrainian Army along the route to Liman.

From the south, the Liman front is effectively sealed off by the Seversky Donets River. During the brutal fighting in 2022, neither side managed to establish a crossing. With the evolution of drone warfare, any river assault today would be even more difficult to carry out.

Russian forces are now within 10km of Liman and just 7km from the Izium road. The offensive is ongoing.

Konstantinovka direction: The site of the main offensive

As of early June, the stretch of the front from Dzerzhinsk (also known as Toretsk) to Mirnograd has become one of the most active battle zones. Russian forces have advanced up to 10km along a 30-kilometer-wide front, capturing 12 settlements and securing more than 15km of a key bypass highway linking Pokrovsk to Konstantinovka.

© RT / Sergey Poletaev based on data from Lostarmor.Ru

These gains suggest that a southern encirclement of Konstantinovka – a city with a pre-war population of 67,000 – may now be underway. Simultaneously, fighting has intensified on the northern flank around Chasov Yar. The terrain in this area poses serious tactical challenges: Chasov Yar sits on elevated ground beyond the Seversky Donets–Donbass Canal, complicating efforts to establish supply lines or mount a full-scale offensive from that direction.

Notably, this sector – among the three fronts currently in focus – has received the least media attention. That may soon change. Given its strategic positioning, it could emerge as a central axis of Russia’s summer campaign.

In the past week, Russian forces dismantled a significant Ukrainian stronghold north of the village of Zarya. The terrain here is rugged and uneven, but if fully secured, it would open a path for Russian troops to push toward the southern outskirts of Konstantinovka.

Pokrovsk and Velikaya Novoselka directions: Approaching the borders of the DPR

Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk), a city of 65,000 before the war, has been under siege since autumn 2024. After Russia’s swift capture of nearby Novogrodovka and Selidovo, it initially appeared that Pokrovsk would fall just as quickly. But in a surprising pivot, Russian command redirected its main effort toward the Kurakhovo axis. Since the winter, Ukrainian forces have attempted to push Russian troops back from the city’s outskirts, but those efforts have largely failed to yield results.

© RT / Sergey Poletaev based on data from Lostarmor.Ru

Further south, across the Volchya River, the offensives launched last year around Kurakhovo and Velikaya Novoselka are still ongoing. Russian troops have taken control of the town of Bogatyr and several surrounding settlements. The front line now lies just 3-15km from the Dnepropetrovsk regional border, depending on the sector.

An interesting development in this sector: Russia’s Central, Eastern, and Southern military groups are coordinating their offensive operations here – a rare show of multi-group integration.

On June 8, the Russian Defense Ministry announced that units from the 90th Tank Division, part of the Center Group of Forces, had reached the western boundary of the Donetsk People’s Republic and were advancing into neighboring Dnepropetrovsk Region.

By Chip Gibbons, The Dissenter, 6/12/25

The following article was made possible by paid subscribers of The Dissenter. Become a subscriber with this discount offer and support journalism that stands up covers whistleblowing, press freedom, and government secrecy.

As United States embassies and military bases across the Middle East braced for a potential Israeli strike against Iran, friends and family of Asif Rahman gathered inside the Albert V. Bryan U.S. Courthouse in Alexandria, Virginia, for his sentencing. 

The former CIA analyst had pleaded guilty to disclosing two top secret documents detailing a U.S. ally’s “planned kinetic action,” a thinly veiled reference to Israel’s October 2024 strikes against Iran. While Rahman’s actions did not prevent the strikes, prosecutors said at an earlier detention hearing that he forced Israel to delay its military strikes.

Those seeking to attend the hearing were greeted by a bailiff standing outside the courtroom and a sign announcing the hearing was “under seal.” Around 11:30 a.m. when the hearing was slated to begin, a bailiff indicated that members of the public not only could not be in the courtroom during the classified portion, but also had to wait on an entirely separate floor altogether. 

Originally, it was estimated the classified portion would take twenty minutes. It was over two hours later when it was announced the court would adjourn for lunch before finally opening the courtroom doors to the public. 

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At the unclassified portion of the hearing, Judge Patricia Tolliver Giles sentenced Rahman to three years and one month of prison time and two years of supervised release. She also imposed two $25,000 fines. 

The sentence was shorter than what the government had requested but longer than the 13-month sentence sought by the defense. It was ultimately a shorter sentence than those imposed on drone whistleblower Daniel Hale and CIA whistleblower Jeffrey Sterling. Like Rahman, both were convicted under §793 of the Espionage Act in the Eastern District of Virginia. 

Rahman’s prosecution was the first Espionage Act prosecution during the Gaza genocide, a vicious campaign of extermination waged by the Israeli government and backed by the U.S. government that has repeatedly threatened to spiral into an even wider regional war.

Yet at least during the open part of the hearing, little if any of this context made its way into the proceeding. In fact, as a potential Israeli strike on Iran dominated the headlines, the court proceedings seemed divorced from the outer world. 

‘In Furtherance of Peace and Saving Lives’

While §793 of the Espionage Act requires a defendant have reason to believe that their actions will harm the U.S., it leaves little room for motives. There is no public interest defense. As a result, public servants aware of very real wrongdoing by the U.S. government are faced with a dilemma: in order to effectively alert the American people they serve about what their government does in the dark, they often must break the law. 

But while motives may not come into play as a defense, they often take center stage during sentencing as the defense tries to show an employee or contractor’s actions were  guided by altruism, a desire to inform the public, or prevent some harm.

Rahman’s attorney Amy Jeffress, a former national security prosecutor, stated to the court that it was certainly difficult to understand how a law-abiding individual who gave up a lucrative career in finance to serve in the CIA made the choice that he made. However, Jeffress explained to the court that the defense had consulted a psychologist who produced an evaluation of Rahman that was submitted under seal. 

According to Jeffress, Rahman’s actions were the result of traumatic world events and past personal trauma. 

In a sentencing memo submitted earlier by Jeffress, the defense mentioned trauma from a threat to his personal safety during his time working with the CIA in Iraq, arguing that “events in the Middle East that began in the fall of 2023 revived his traumatic experiences in Iraq in a profoundly destabilizing and unforeseeable way.”

Jeffress told the court that the former CIA analyst acted out of “misguided compassion” and “in furtherance of peace and saving lives.” But immediately after mentioning Rahman’s attempts to achieve peace and save lives, Jeffress stressed that his actions were “irrational.” 

The defense sought to explain Rahman’s solely action in psychological terms, eschewing any descriptions of them as whistleblowing or politically motivated.

After the hearing, The Dissenter asked Jeffress if she wished to expound on how her client viewed his actions as being in furtherance of peace and saving lives, but she declined to do so (though she thanked this reporter for noticing she had made that remark). 

Whistleblowers Hale and Chelsea Manning both made statements at their sentencing stressing how the brutal toll of war on civilians inspired their actions. When Rahman spoke, he apologized to his family and stated it was an honor and privilege to serve with the CIA. He said he was sorry for harming the reputation of the CIA and stressed the important work that his former colleagues do, much of which we will never know about due to its secretive nature.

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Rahman’s Cooperation With the Government

Much of Rahman’s arguments for leniency centered on his cooperation with the government.

Although the government took a hardline stance against granting bail to Rahman— arguing to the court that he posed a danger and a flight risk, it has since been revealed that almost immediately Rahman began cooperating with the government.

Such cooperation included giving the government access and passwords to encrypted devices, and in the words of Assistant U.S. Attorney Troy A. Edwards Jr., he told the government “what he had done, who he had done it with, and how he did it.”

Also, according to a government filing, Rahman “provided truthful information related to others,” however, that information was unlikely to result in their prosecution. 

This cooperation initially produced a plea deal in which the government and defense agreed on a guidelines range for sentencing. However, on May 6, one week before the original sentencing hearing date, the prosecutors under instruction from the main Justice Department sought a dramatic sentence of 108 months. 

Prosecutors also filed a last-minute classified sentencing memo, as well as an unclassified letter from CIA Deputy Director Michael J. Ellis. The defense argued the court should not admit any of this into evidence at sentencing. As a result of the standoff, the judge postponed the sentencing hearing repeatedly. 

Incredibly, by the hearing, Jeffress noted that the prosecution no longer stood by the request for a 108-month sentence. Edwards also told Giles that the government did not object to striking the portions of Ellis’s letter dealing with actual harm, as opposed to potential harm. 

Giles ultimately refused to allow any part of the high-ranking CIA official’s letter to be considered, stating that the letter alleged actual harm was caused by Rahman’s disclosure when the classified portion made clear there was only evidence of potential harm.

While the prosecution backed away from the 108-month sentence, they continued the bizarre move of seeking both a downward departure and an upwards variance from the sentencing guidelines. (Departures and variances refer to sentences outside the guideline range, but they are based on different statutes. In other words, the government asked for a higher and a lower sentence than the guidelines, which is both weird and nonsensical.)

While Rahman was indicted over two disclosures, the plea agreement revealed for the first time earlier disclosures of classified information, as well as the role of third parties in these disclosures. 

The prosecution insisted that this conduct was more egregious than what was described in the initial indictment. Giles agreed stating that the indictment failed to capture the full seriousness of this conduct, which was discussed in the classified session. (To date, those earlier disclosures or who the third parties were remains a complete mystery.) 

Giles pushed back on the government for arguing Rahman’s conduct was akin to offenses under §794 of the Espionage Act, which covered in the words of the prosecution “traditional espionage.” A §794 offense carries a potential death sentence. 

This move followed a similar bait-and-switch in the sentencing of convicted Vault 7 leaker Joshua Schulte. Like Rahman, Schulte was charged under §793, but the government invoked those convicted under the more severe statute when seeking a harsh prison sentence. 

An important distinction between the government’s positions in both cases is that in the Schulte case the government alleged Schulte intended to injure the U.S., whereas in Rahman’s case the government conceded he had no such intent. Giles insisted it was wrong for the government to have someone plead to a lesser charge and then try to sentence them based on a more serious one. She also noted that there were no facts to sustain a charge under §794 against Rahman.

Where Rahman Will Serve His Sentence

While Giles pushed back against the government at times, she also showed an immense reverence for national security secrecy. She continued to stress the allegedly dangerous nature of what Rahman had done, accusing him of both endangering the American people and breaching their trust. Giles noted that the documents were so secret she could not have them in her chambers, yet they were “floating around in the ethers” and on the internet. She called Rahman’s actions “reckless, yet calculated.”

Ultimately, Giles rejected the government’s request for an upwards variance at sentencing. And she granted an even greater downward departure than the government requested. Rahman’s defense requested that the judge recommend Rahman be placed in Federal Correctional Institution Petersburg, a medium-security facility in Virginia. 

While Edwards was unsure if the Justice Department would  request Special Administrative Measures (SAMs), if they did that would limit where Rahman could be sent. 

One prison was “ADX,” which most likely was a reference to the maximum-security prison in Florence, Colorado. The other was a medium-security prison in Maryland. Edwards stated if SAMs were requested, he would recommend the Maryland prison. Ultimately, the decision of where to house Rahman is entirely up to the federal Bureau of Prisons. 

After the sentencing, Rahman’s family was clearly relieved. They were in tears as they hugged Jeffress. 

Israel’s genocide has sparked levels of dissent within the U.S. government that have not been seen since the Vietnam War. As Israel’s backers in both the Republican and Democratic Parties lose control of the narrative, they’ve sought to reestablish control by shredding the First Amendment. 

It was predictable that the government would wield the Espionage Act as part of this crackdown on freedom of expression. Yet this political context was absent at Rahman’s sentencing.

While there was a smattering of hints that he had a political motive, they were left largely unexplored. Instead, the defense attributed the leaks to his mental state while emphasizing his cooperation with the U.S. government to secure a shorter prison sentence. 

YouTube link here.

Here is the link to the 2009 policy paper Berletic refers to by the Brookings Institution, “Which Path to Persia.”

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Russia Calls Israeli Attack on Iran ‘Unacceptable,’

Russia Matters, 6/13/25

Russia’s Vladimir Putin held phone calls with Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu and Iran’s Masoud Pezeshkian in the afternoon of June 13, condemning Israel’s overnight attacks on military, nuclear and other targets in Iran, and offering his mediation services to the two arch-enemies. In sync with the Kremlin, Russia’s Foreign Ministry condemned Israel’s strikes as “unacceptable,” while Putin’s deputy in the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev invoked the threat of a nuclear war in his reaction to the attacks. Of the pro-Kremlin Russian commentators whose views on the attacks RM staff managed to find, most criticized Israel, while some worried about the possible disintegration of Iran, which supplies most of the attack drones used by Russia in its war against Ukraine.

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Live updates at Al Jazeera regarding Israel-Iran strikes