By Oliver Boyd-Barrett, Substack, 6/19/26
…There have been at least three Ukrainian attempts to attack Moscow in the past 48 hours [as of June 19th], involving thousands of drones. Russia claims that of the three waves of attacks only the first was successful and that it shot down all of the drones of Ukraine’s second and third waves that were heading towards Moscow, a claim that I consider unlikely.
Russia has not yet retaliated. The numbers of drones launched by Russia against targets in Ukraine over the past couple of days have been modest. But Military Summary channel reports that a major retaliation is being prepared and four Tu-95 strategic bombers with cruise missiles are ready for combat at Engels airfield with Kiev being the most likely major target (I’m not sure whether that exactly constitutes bone-shuddering threat).
Regardless of whether or not one considers damage to the Moscow oil refinery, startling images of explosions, thick black smoke and black rain over Moscow, and their “proof” of Russian air defense deficiency, as mere performative “pinpricks” that are foolishly designed to disturb what we are told is the reigning sense of “normalcy” – as pro-Russian commentators in alternative media spaces are inclined to do, with assurances as to how “superficial” is the damage and how quickly that damage is repaired (how would these commentators feel about such attacks on their own neighborhoods in London or New York?), Ukrainian drone swarms certainly still seem very rewarding PR efforts. These are functioning successfully to squeeze more money in support of Ukraine from an economically stagnating or declining Europe. I do agree, incidentally, that Western mainstream media, devote far too little attention to the damage inflicted on Ukrainian targets by Russian drones and missiles.
Ukraine’s sponsors are backing a multi-billion-dollar initiative to fund long-range ammunition and supply the Prioritised Ukraine Requirements List (PURL) through which Europe provides money to US weapons manufacturers to provide to Ukraine.
Within the past few days we have been advised to expect the Netherlands to furnish €500 million, of which half will secure weapons through PURL, and the rest will go to drone procurement; Belgium will provide 3 combat-ready F-16s and another 4 for spare parts while promising to hand over its entire F-16 fleet once the newer generation of F-35s is ready; the UK, illegally, says it is going to use frozen Russian funds to pay for 150,000 drones; Australia will throw in another $100 million to bring up Canberra’s contribution to the war to $1.8 billion; Germany will purchase more Norwegian NOMADS short-range air-defense systems for Ukraine, of which 8 have already been supplied; Sweden, Norway and Canada are working on a new military aid package of which Sweden will commit $108 million.
Member states of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group (Ramstein format) have announced new contributions in support of Ukraine. Norway, the Netherlands, Germany, Sweden, Luxembourg, Lithuania, Latvia, Iceland and Australia have for contributed more than $1 billion. Norway, Denmark, Luxembourg, Spain and Lithuania are supporting the Czech ammunition initiative and the delivery of long-range munitions, amounting to more than $500 million. The United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Norway have committed nearly $1 billion toward the production of Ukrainian drones and missiles.
European states have significantly expanded drone-related aid. Norway committed $600 million for UAVs, electronic warfare systems, and explosives, while the Netherlands dedicated $106 million for strike and reconnaissance drones. Poland has heavily invested in deep-strike capabilities and joint drone production. Sweden has announced an $8 billion security assistance package spanning 2026–2027, and the Czech Republic secured a new $72 million package. Allies are backing a multi-billion-dollar initiative to fund long-range ammunition and supply the Prioritised Ukraine Requirements List (PURL). The EU has released nearly €2.8 billion following key reforms in Ukraine’s public finances, agriculture, and energy sectors, bringing the EU’s total support under the “Ukraine Plan” to €29.5 billion.
Europe is increasingly focused on the co-development of capabilities, linking Ukrainian and European private defense markets to ensure speed and innovation. EU leadership is heavily accelerating the integration of Ukraine’s defense industry while working to ramp up broader European defense readiness by 2030 when many European leaders believe they will be at war with Russia.
This all sounds very busy and purposeful, but in totalling the figures I find the overall effort adding up to relatively little.
On the battlefields, Russian forces are continuing to make pressure eastwards on the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk-Druzhkivka conurbation – in the north from Lyman through the forested areas that separate Lyman and Izyum, blocking Ukrainian escape routes from Lyman through Maiaky and Raihorodok, moving west from Dibrova, Orikhuavatka , Yurkivka, Rai-Oleksandrivka to just a few kilometers from Kramatorsk; – in the south, west of Kostiantynivka Russian forces move from Molochavka in the north and Rozkishne in the south, surrounding and likely soon moving directly onto Mykolaivka.