By Brian McDonald, Substack, 9/21/26
It’s just after 1.15pm on Monday in Moscow and the dullest State Duma election campaign in modern Russian historyhas almost concluded, producing a parliament whose importance may only become apparent later.
Despite the Ukraine conflict and economic pressures, the preliminary official share of Putin’s United Russia stands roughly eight percentage points above its 2021 result, while official turnout is heading for its highest level since 2011.
The Communists, meanwhile, have fallen from almost 19% to around 14%. The reasons include the loss of their protest role, the fact they have recoiled from cooperation with non-systemic players, much of their core support literally dying off, an increasingly elderly leadership, the failure to embrace modern techniques and a very boring campaign.
System-liberal party New People’s roughly 8% represents growth, but fourth place will disappoint those who had hoped disaffected Yabloko voters could propel it into second, after the pro-Western liberals were kicked off the federal list last month, with various legal pretexts found to justify their exclusion. Sergey Kirienko’s group is seen as the least hostile to the West of Russia’s main political parties and is less enthusiastic about the Ukraine conflict than its peers.
The far-right LDPR can take more satisfaction from approximately 9%, up from 7.6%, in its first parliamentary election without legendary firebrand Vladimir Zhirinovsky, which means his party has survived him, although parliamentary entertainment has plainly suffered.
Until a sharp change as the last votes were counted, Monday looked like a disaster for the left-nationalist Fair Russia, which was short of the five per cent threshold needed for its party list to enter the Duma. However, lo and behold, they just managed to scrap past the trapdoor, which will raise some eyebrows after a lackluster campaign in which the mysterious illness of their leader, Sergey Mironov, didn’t help their cause.
The broader parliamentary ideological offer is thin, as market liberalism and political liberalism have been treated as foreign infections by all parties, except perhaps New People, without much clarity about what should replace them domestically.
Of course, a compliant parliament can spare the authorities the inconvenience of discussing that question.
With confrontation with Western Europe deepening, the Kremlin has little incentive to encourage the Duma to become a platform for independent political debate, but this politically colourless chamber’s five-year term could feasibly encompass a transition of power in Russia, should one occur.
Which means a parliament accustomed to approving decisions could then have a major role in endorsing whatever arrangements emerge, and the significance of this really shouldn’t be underestimated.
Nevertheless, such an outcome will depend on a wide range of different factors, with the next presidential election currently set for 2030.
And it’s entirely possible that Putin’s name will again be on the ballot, seeking a sixth term, which would potentially keep him in the Kremlin beyond his 82nd birthday, health and other issues allowing.