Russia Matters, 9/27/24

U.S. intelligence agencies believe that Russia is likely to retaliate with greater force against the United States and its coalition partners, possibly with lethal attacks, if they agree to give the Ukrainians permission to use their long-range missiles for deep strikes inside Russia, NYT reported. As the debate continued this week among Ukraine’s Western allies, officials interviewed by WP said that the Ukrainians had expected Joe Biden to have already granted permission by now. 

Russia has made fresh gains in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region this week. Moscow’s forces captured the town of Ukrainsk near the logistical hub of Pokrovsk, and looked closer to encircling Vulhedar and Kurakove, which, if taken, would allow Russia to encircle and take Pokrovsk, severing Ukraine’s main supply line to the region according to FT and Ukrainian group DeepState. FT reported that Russian forces have moved within 8 kilometers of Pokrovsk and just 4 kilometers of Myrnohrad. On each of two days last week, the Ukrainian military reported more than 200 clashes between the two sides—the highest such numbers in many months, according to DeepState,

Russia plans to spend 6.2% of GDP on defense in 2025 and sees only slight declines in the following two years as Putin’s war on Ukraine shows no sign of ending, Bloomberg reported. Draft three-year budget proposals seen by Bloomberg News show the government intends to increase defense spending to 13.2 trillion rubles ($142 billion) in 2025 from 10.4 trillion rubles projected for this year. Additionally, the Kremlin is planning to spend more than 40 trillion rubles ($431 billion) over six years to achieve social targets Putin set for his current presidential term, according to Bloomberg.

By Fred Weir, Christian Science Monitor, 9/19/24

Over the course of the war in Ukraine, the Kremlin has drawn several “red lines” – with ostentatious references to Russia’s huge strategic nuclear arsenal – only to seemingly do nothing when these lines are crossed by Ukraine or its Western backers.

It happened when Ukraine acquired new and more powerful Western arms. It happened when Kyiv used its own drones to hit Russian airfields, refineries, and even the Kremlin itself. Most recently, it happened when Ukrainian forces actually invaded Russian territory. That has led Ukrainians, and many NATO officials, to conclude that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s nuclear saber-rattling is an elaborate bluff.

But when Mr. Putin warned last Thursday that Moscow will consider it a direct act of war by NATO if British, French, or U.S.-made missiles are used by Ukraine to strike targets deep inside Russia, he said this time is different.

Many Russian experts agree. And for now, Washington seems to be heeding his threat and holding off on permitting Ukraine to use the weapons.

“Russia’s frustration has been growing because the West appears to have lost all fear of nuclear war. Deterrence is absent,” says Sergei Strokan, an international affairs columnist with the Moscow daily Kommersant. During the Cold War, he says, that fear drove both sides to the bargaining table, aiming to limit conflicts and control nuclear weapons.

“There is a growing feeling that the West needs some kind of a wake-up call, an event that would make them see they are flirting with World War III if they escalate these attacks against Russia,” he says.

Deterrence and the war in Ukraine

Mr. Putin, responding to a question from a journalist, distinguished the use of the weapon types being discussed – British and French cruise missiles and U.S.-made ATACMS ballistic missiles – from previous red-line scenarios because he said such weapons are too sophisticated to be operated by Ukrainians alone. He claimed they would require hands-on NATO assistance and satellite targeting and guidance to effectively carry out strikes deep inside Russia.

“This will mean that NATO countries – the United States and European countries – are at war with Russia. And if this is the case, then, bearing in mind the change in the essence of the conflict, we will make appropriate decisions in response to the threats that will be posed to us,” Mr. Putin said.

The Kremlin sounds like it’s treating this challenge as the final straw. For over a year Mr. Putin has been under public pressure from hawkish members of his security elite, led by foreign policy dean Sergey Karaganov, to “restore deterrence” by staging a demonstration nuclear strike in order to remind the West that Russia is a nuclear superpower that shouldn’t be trifled with.

It’s not clear what response the Kremlin may be mulling, but the Russian media are a hotbed of speculation about it.

At the mild end of the spectrum are steps such as cutting off diplomatic relations, especially with the NATO country that Moscow views as the most actively hostile one, the United Kingdom. Another idea would be to stage a demonstration nuclear weapons test, something Russia has not done since 1990. Some reports say the old Soviet Arctic nuclear testing site at Novaya Zemlya has already been prepared for that possibility.

Sergei Markov, a former Kremlin adviser, says a stronger response might be to attack NATO airfields in Poland and Romania where, he says, “We know Ukrainian F-16s are based. These aircraft would probably be used in launching those NATO missiles at us, so we would regard them as legitimate targets.”

Forthcoming changes to Russia’s official nuclear doctrine may radically change the calculus for unleashing nuclear weapons.

At present, Russia would be prepared to use atomic weapons only in the case that the country is attacked with them by a nuclear-armed power, or if the very existence of the Russian state is threatened amid a conventional conflict.

Mr. Markov says the amendments under consideration would lower the threshold for employing tactical nuclear weapons, perhaps making them an integral part of any future battlefield.

Another revision might change the provision that Russian statehood must be in peril to instead enable the weapons to be used when Russian “strategic interests” are threatened. It would also allow their use against non-nuclear states that are part of a coalition that includes nuclear-armed powers if they are attacking Russia.

Fear of nuclear war

According to Alexei Levinson, an expert with the Levada Center, Russia’s only independent polling agency, fear of nuclear conflict has been growing among the Russian population since the Ukraine war began, from around a quarter of respondents to over a third.

“In our focus groups, we find it is the second biggest fear after concern for the well-being of self and immediate family,” he says. “It has escalated since the beginning of the special operation and is at a constantly high level.”

One of Russia’s top security experts, Alexei Arbatov, told the daily Nezavisimaya Gazeta this week that the drift of events is very dangerous because of the widespread belief in the West that Russia would never use nuclear arms.

“This is a very serious misconception: at some point, nuclear weapons will be used, despite the risk of escalation and general catastrophe,” he said.

Mr. Strokan argues that Western observers do not appreciate the extent to which Mr. Putin is under pressure from hawks to his right, such as the nuclear strike advocate Mr. Karaganov.

“Putin is probably the most moderate politician in Moscow right now, and if it weren’t for him we’d probably get a collective Karaganov in power,” he says. “Even now they are expressing open impatience and asking, ‘Why haven’t we pressed the button already?’”

By Valentin Alfimov, Komsomolskaya Pravda (Machine translation), 9/11/24

The author of the telegram channel “Whisper of the Front” in a conversation with “Komsomolskaya Pravda” named the losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. It turned out that they have people left for a year or two.

– How do you count the losses?

– It’s a program that searches by keywords. It monitors the Internet, social networks. Local councils sometimes write obituaries, factories… like, “zaginov” (died – from Ukrainian) such and such “zahisnik” (defender – from Ukrainian). Yes, people post it on social networks – it’s like a cry from the heart for them.

– Can you compare, now the losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are more or less?

– The same or even more. Last week there was a record – 1208 or 1206 obituaries per day. Even during the Bakhmut operation at the peak there were 1100 and something.

“You have a margin of error, don’t you?”

– Of course, so the losses are most likely even greater. But everything comes to light over time: they will post 300-400 obituaries… but after some time, information about new deaths at the same time in the same place arrives.

MANY ARE STILL IN THE FIELDS

– How long have you been doing this?

– Back in 2014, we had a group called “Situation of Novorossiya”. We published all the obituaries that the Ukrainian press printed. In 2014, we counted about 6.5 thousand losses of the Ukrainian army.

– How many do they have now?

– There are 501 thousand obituaries now. This is what I got after painstakingly collecting information for over two years. The figure matches what is confirmed by the Americans, European politicians, the Russian Defense Ministry. Everyone confirms it, except the Ukrainians. Although they publish it themselves, they are afraid to believe it.

– You emphasize that this is the number of obituaries. But how many actually died?

– I think their real losses are around 600 thousand. Plus or minus.

– We talked to you in November 2023. Then you mentioned the figure of 380 thousand obituaries and 420-430 thousand losses. Now there are over 500 thousand obituaries and somewhere around 600 thousand losses…

– Maybe not 600, but 540-550 dead. After all, they can’t put up an obituary when there is no body. And there are still quite a few bodies on the combat line.

– It’s still a lot.

– The final figure of the Ukrainian army, when it loses combat capability, is 800 thousand dead and totally wounded. This is based on the population, the composition of the armed forces, calculated by political scientists and mathematicians of the world. After that, they will not be able to fight anymore. That is, their backbone, which pulls the entire front, is 200-300 thousand still alive. At this rate, it will be for a year or two.

“WILD GEESE”

– Do you count foreigners?

– There are publicly available websites, social media channels. As of today, they have posted 670 names from 56 countries. But they themselves warn that this figure is inaccurate. Then, they write that these are “volunteers”, not mercenaries, former officers. And it is clear that they are deliberately understating. Here they write: “Venezuela – 1, Uzbekistan – 1”. But I know that there were at least 4 people from Venezuela. I think that there are up to a thousand dead foreign mercenaries.

“Where does the most come from?”

– Most of all the English are going. There were a lot of Americans at first. Now a lot of Colombians are taking part. There are enough French, Georgians. Well, of course, some NATO officers are dying – American, even Australian…

– What can you say about the attack on the training base in Poltava?

– I think there are about a hundred casualties – that’s what my Poltava relatives say. And many wounded, some of whom, of course, will not survive, so the number will grow.

– Are there many foreigners?

– There are foreigners. I just saw a clipping from a German newspaper: the mayor’s office of the German city of Hessen posted an obituary. But they didn’t sign who exactly died. As soon as the information comes out, we’ll look for this person.

41 BODIES PER DAY

– The first Ukrainian F-16 pilot was killed by friendly fire. Can such losses be tracked?

– It’s hard. At one time there was a video of Ukrainians killing each other in Kharkov – that was February 2024. They admitted it later, though. But they keep quiet about a lot. Such losses are hidden.

– Is it possible to weed out losses due to illness, lack of medical care for the wounded, due to the incompetence of commanders?

– No, all in one piggy bank. For example, 400-500 names fall out in a day. Somewhere the obituary is 2-3 lines, and sometimes on a page. So, we need to look for where they died, how. It’s almost impossible. And 10-15 percent of obituaries are those who died in hospitals. But they also write there – the hero, died…

– In which hospitals do people die the most?

– The largest flow is given out by the Dnipropetrovsk hospital, the Zaporozhye military hospital and the Kyiv one. One nurse from the Dnepropetrovsk hospital once wrote to me that in a day they pulled out 41 bodies to the backyard.

Those who cannot be helped in the same Zaporozhye are taken to Dnepropetrovsk. That’s why there is such a high mortality rate – especially after their counteroffensive, everyone was taken there.

BY THE WAY

There is no spirit left in Ukraine

– You communicate with those who remained in Ukraine. Can you assess the dynamics of moods?

– Everything is sad there. This is a dying country. If it is still normal in Kyiv, then the cities to the east are suffering – Poltava region, Kirovohrad, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporozhye. It’s fun only in Transcarpathia – they don’t feel anything there, they earn a lot of money on the “runners”, on the border, on the export of timber…

– And what do people say?

-Sorely… I have relatives in Poltava. They don’t talk. It all comes down to “no comment”.

– Because they are angry?

-Afraid. There are no prospects, everyone is snitching on everyone – God forbid someone notices you in sympathy for Russia. You can’t trust anyone.

– Why don’t the people rise up, don’t protest?

– On the Maidan, it all started with the students, on whom the Americans later played. Do you know how much they spent on it?

5 billion dollars is the official figure. 5 billion to grab such a large country. Everywhere you need to bribe.

The opposition in Ukraine has been knocked out, people are intimidated and bullied – even the TCC (territorial recruitment and social support center) can no longer win – this is specifically the SS, these 3-4 men will twist you, beat your kidneys: “Go serve in our place.” No one in Ukraine is rising up, not in a single region. There is no spirit, nothing. The whole country is watching the telethon. Thank God, at least on the Internet there are people who curse this government.

Moscow Times, 9/20/24

Over 70,000 Russian soldiers have been confirmed killed in Ukraine since the Kremlin launched its invasion more than two and a half years ago, according to an independent tally by the BBC’s Russian service and the independent Mediazona news website.

The two outlets have been verifying the number of Russian troops killed through open-source information including official statements, newspaper obituaries and social media posts.

The latest death toll update, published Friday by the BBC’s Russian service, highlights how the demographic profile of Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine has shifted since the full-scale invasion. Currently, one in five of the dead had signed a contract with the Russian army or the National Guard (Rosgvardia) after the war started, and more than half were not affiliated with the military before Feb. 24, 2022.

In 2022, the average Russian soldier killed was a 21-year-old contract serviceman in elite units like Special Forces, Airborne Forces or the Marines. Now, those dying in the conflict tend to be men in their 40s, 50s or even 60s, often lacking combat experience or specialized training.

The report found a steady rise in casualties among volunteers since October 2023, coinciding with a renewed Russian offensive in the Ukrainian city of Avdiivka. Meanwhile, losses among mobilized troops and prisoners have remained steady.

As of Sept. 20, the republic of Bashkortostan has reported the highest confirmed losses, with 2,775 deaths, while the far northern Nenets Autonomous District has the lowest, with 55 residents confirmed killed.

Russia has lost 4,104 officers in Ukraine, including seven generals. Among the fallen are 458 high-ranking officers, including lieutenant colonels and above, and 1,142 elite command specialists.

The BBC estimates that their count covers only 45% to 65% of the actual death toll. This suggests that the real number of Russian military deaths could range from 107,864 to 155,804.

The tally does not account for fighters from the self-proclaimed Luhansk or Donetsk People’s Republics of occupied eastern Ukraine — the BBC estimates the fighter death toll from there at between 21,000 and 23,500.

The Russian Defense Ministry last updated its official death toll for the war in Ukraine in September 2022, placing the figure at fewer than 6,000 killed.

By Kyle Anzalone, Libertarian Institute, 9/25/24

As the North Atlantic alliance ramps up preparations for war with Russia, Brussels is considering how it might remove a large number of wounded NATO soldiers from the frontlines should conflict with Moscow breakout. 

Lieutenant-General Alexander Sollfrank, the head of NATO’s logistics command, discussed the plans with Reuters. “The challenge will be to swiftly ensure high-quality care for, in the worst case, a great number of wounded,” he said.

Sollfrank believes that NATO will be unable to have air superiority over the frontlines in a conflict with Russia. He said the bloc is considering using hospital trains and buses to move the wounded soldiers. Sollfrank explained, “For planning reasons, all options to take a great number of wounded to medical installations need to be considered, which includes trains but potentially also buses.”

At the end of the Cold War, with the dissolution of the Soviet Union, war between Russia and NATO was unthinkable. However, over the past three decades, the North Atlantic alliance has expanded up to Russia’s borders. 

At the start of the Joe Biden administration, Washington and Brussels began treating Kiev as a de facto member of the alliance. The ties between Ukraine and NATO provoked the Russian invasion of Ukraine. 

Throughout the war in Ukraine, the West has steadily escalated its support for Ukraine. The Kremlin has increasingly viewed itself in a direct conflict with the West. 

President Biden is considering giving Ukraine the green light to conduct long-range missile attacks inside of Russia with American weapons. Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned that if the White House approves the attack, it would mean direct war with NATO.