Russia Matters, 8/7/26

Russian confidence in the Ukraine war’s success drops to 50%: The share of Russians who believe their country’s war against Ukraine is “proceeding successfully” has declined by 19 percentage points in the past year, totaling 50%, according to a poll conducted by the {western backed]  Levada Center in 50 regions of Russia in July. As many as 62% of Russians believed in July that it was time to initiate peace negotiations (which is two percentage points less than in June), while some 38% said Russia should continue “military actions,” according to the poll. Some 59% of the poll’s respondents believe that if “peace cannot be achieved for now,” then Russia should “escalate strikes on Ukraine, including with use of new types of weapons.” Only 21% believe Russia should make “additional concessions” to Ukraine and the West in such a scenario. Meanwhile, a July-August poll by KIIS has found that 60% of Ukrainians categorically oppose handing all of Donbas to Russia in exchange for security guarantees, but 59% say they could accept a “freeze” of the war along the current front line. Separately, 45% of Ukrainians now expect the war to last until at least the second half of 2027 or longer, according to Ukrainska Pravda’s analysis of the KIIS poll.